EXCHANGE 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S  HOUR 
OF  DESTINY 


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THE 
GERMAN   EMPIRE'S 
HOUR  OF  DESTINY 


BY 


COLONEL  H.   FROBENIUS 

With  a  Preface  by 
SIR  VALENTINE  CHIROL 


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NEW  YORK 
McBRIDE,  NAST  &  COMPANY 

1914? 


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Copyright,    1914, 
McBride,  Nast  &  Co. 


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Published  November,  1914 


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CONTENTS 

CHAPTEE  PAGE 

Preface 3 

I     The     Inevitable     Conflict     Between 

Great  Britain  and  Germany  .      .      .15 

II     RussL-v's    Preparation    for    War    with 

Germany  and  Austria 75 

III     A  French  War  of  Revenge  Forecasted  106 

IV     The  Hour  of  Destiny     ......   128 


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THE  PREFACE  TO  AMERICAN 

EDITION 

The  extraordinary  interest  for  Americans  of 
this  remarkably  prophetic  book  is  heightened 
by  the  fact  that  "The  Hour,"  epitomized  in  the 
familiar  toast  of  the  zealous  German  militarist, 
has  come;  and  by  the  further  knowledge  that 
Col.  Frobenius'  prophecies  are  based  in  part 
upon  the  observations  of  Homer  Lea,  an 
American  student  of  world  politics. 

Published  only  a  few  days  before  the  declar- 
ation of  war  and  receiving  the  hearty  commen- 
dation of  the  German  Crown  Prince,  this  book 
definitely  forecasts  the  greatest  war  in  history, 
as  early  as  the  spring  of  1915  or  1916. 

Col.  Frobenius  with  blunt  soldierly  direct- 
ness declares  that  the  preservation  of  the  Brit- 
ish World  Empire  requires  the  enfeeblement, 
or  destruction  of  Germany,  and  that  France 
has  long  been  prepared  for  a  war  of  revenge. 
Pursuing  what  he  regards  as  a  logical  course, 

3 


PREFACE 

He  maintains  that  the  cuhnination  of  the  Wars 
of  the  Nations  will  be  a  mighty  conflict  in  the 
Pacific  between  the  American,  European  and 
Asiatic  Nations. 


4 


PREFACE 

Some  student  of  the  historical  phenomena  of 
our  times  will  doubtless  one  day  work  out  a 
complete  record  of  the  warnings  of  the  coming 
storm  we  have  had  out  of  the  mouths  of  Ger- 
mans themselves  since  Treitschke,  the  apoca- 
lyptic precursor  of  the  Mailed  Fist,  first 
proclaimed  that  Germany  must  square  ac- 
counts first  with  France  and  Russia  and  then 
proceed  to  the  squaring  of  the  last  and  great- 
est of  her  accounts — with  England.  When 
that  record  has  been  compiled,  we  shall  hardly 
be  able  to  charge  the  Germans  with  having 
sought  to  take  us  unawares. 

There  are  none  so  deaf  as  those  who  have 
not  ears  to  listen,  or  who  listen  only  to  the 
things  they  like  to  hear.  With  the  latter,  in- 
deed, our  ears  were  plied  to  satiety  through 
all  the  many  official  and  imofficial  channels 

5 


PREFACE 

which  Germany  had  at  her  command,  from  the 
Emperor  and  his  Ministers  down  to  the  per- 
sonally conducted  parties  of  amiable  Teutons 
who  periodically  came  to  England  with  hatred 
in  their  hearts  but  with  a  keen  eye  to  business 
and  always  with  their  pockets  bulging  out 
with  messages  of  peace  and  goodwill. 

Only  a  nation  as  addicted  as  ourselves  to 
contemptuous  indifference  in  regard  to  all  for- 
eign countries  could  have  failed  to  be  struck 
with  the  contrast  between  the  smooth  lan- 
guage used  before  the  footlights  under  the 
audible  prompting  of  the  Imperial  stage  man- 
ager, and  what  was  being  not  merely  said  but 
done  behind  the  scenes  by  the  blood  and  iron 
authors  of  the  new  Teutonic  drama:  "World 
Empire  or  Downfall." 

Our  prosperity  had  satisfied  us  that  peace 
was  the  greatest  of  British  interests,  and,  that 
being  so,  we  hugged  ourselves  with  the  com- 
fortable assumption  that  nobody  else  would 
try  to  disturb  it.     If  peace  was  good  enough 

6 


PREFACE 

for  Englishmen,  it  was  good  enough  for  the 
rest  of  the  world.  That  in  Germany  there 
was  growing  up  a  powerful  school  of  thought 
which  looked  upon  war  as  in  itself  a  far  higher 
thing  than  peace,  and  war  with  England, 
especially,  as  indispensable  to  the  working  out 
of  Germany's  destinies,  was  to  most  English- 
men incredible,  as  most  things  seem  to  be  that 
lie  entirely  outside  the  range  of  one's  own  ex- 
perience. 

When  Germany,  time  and  again,  rejected 
with  scorn  and  derision  the  proposals  of  the 
British  Government  to  reduce  the  burden  of 
aimaments  by  common  agreement,  or  to  ex- 
pand the  area  of  international  arbitration,  or 
to  mitigate  the  horrors  of  warfare  by  the 
solemn  enactment  of  specific  regulations,  we 
spoke  with  sorrow  rather  than  with  indigna- 
tion of  her  short-sightedness  and  comforted 
ourselves  with  the  assurance  that,  in  the  long 
run,  the  forces  of  progress  and  peace  must 
prevail  in  Germany,  as  everywhere  else,  over 

7 


PREFACE 

the  medieval  influences  of  a  German  bureau- 
cracy still  imbued  with  some  of  the  worst  Bis- 
marckian  traditions. 

The  few  Englishmen  who,  having  enjoyed 
better  opportunities,  had  for  many  years  past 
read  the  signs  of  the  times  in  Germany,  who 
had  realized  that  a  new  generation  was  grow- 
ing up  which  regarded  even  the  Bismarckian 
traditions  as  too  mild  and  cramped  to  achieve 
the  boundless  expansion  of  the  Teutonic  world 
empire,  who  had  recognized  that  the  German 
sword  was  no  longer,  as  in  Bismarck's  days, 
merely  the  powerful  weapon  which  German 
diplomacy  controlled,  but  itself  now  controlled 
German  diplomacy,  did  their  best  to  enlighten 
their  fellow-countrymen,  but  they  were  merely 
jeered  at  for  their  pains  as  mischievous  alarm- 
ists who  mistook  the  ravings  of  a  few  German 
fire-eaters  for  the  voice  of  the  great  peace- 
loving  German  people. 

Some  of  our  rulers,  with  the  fuller  knowl- 
edge they  were  bound  to  possess,  saw,  if  only 

8 


PREFACE 

as  through  a  glass  darkly,  the  breakers  ahead. 
But  they  hesitated  to  take  the  country  into 
their  complete  confidence,  and  the  measures 
they  were  from  time  to  time  compelled  to  take 
in  order  to  secure  a  modicum  of  national 
safety  were  therefore  too  often  only  half 
measures  brought  forward  with  an  apologetic 
half-heartedness  which  failed  to  carry  convic- 
tion either  to  friends  or  to  foes. 

This  translation  of  Colonel  Frobenius's 
book,  with  the  high-sounding  title  of  The  Ger- 
man Empire's  Hour  of  Destiny,  is  the  latest 
addition  to  the  evidence  with  which,  since  the 
war  broke  out,  the  British  public  is  being  con- 
fronted of  its  blindness  for  so  many  years  past 
to  the  true  inwardness  of  German  ambitions. 
He  too  is  one  of  those  who  foreshadowed  Ger- 
many's Next  War,  and  though  he  is  not 
possessed  of  the  fine  frenzy  which  inspires 
General  von  Bernhardi's  works,  and  indeed 
looks  mainly  to  an  American,  General  Homer 
Lea,  for  his  text,  his  businesslike  discussion  of 

9 


PREFACE 

the  military  problem  to  which  Germany  would 
have  to  address  herself,  is  none  the  less  valu- 
able. 

As  for  all  the  writers  of  this  school,  Eng- 
land is  for  him  the  enemy  par  ecccellence. 
But  in  some  respects  he  surpasses  them  all  by 
imputing  to  her,  even  in  the  conduct  of  the 
coming  war,  the  same  Machiavellian  duplicity 
which  has,  of  course,  in  his  opinion  character- 
ized her  diplomatic  preparations  for  it.  *'The 
world  is  governed  only  by  trickery  and  de- 
ceit," wrote  Frederick  the  Great  to  Voltaire, 
and  the  Emperor  William  prides  himself, 
above  all,  on  being  the  direct  heir  of  the  Fred- 
erickian  tradition.  But  he  who  puts  his  faith 
in  trickery  and  deceit  and  makes  a  constant 
practise  of  them,  is  apt  to  assume  that  every 
one  else  does  the  same,  and  this  assumption 
lands  him  in  grievous  miscalculations. 

Colonel  Frobenius  has  stumbled  badly  into 
this  very  pitfall.  He  believes,  of  course,  in 
the  first  place  that  England,  whilst  anxious  to 

10 


PREFACE 

see  Germany  involved  in  a  life  and  death 
struggle  with  France  and  Russia,  would  do 
her  best  to  keep  out  of  the  conflict  herself, 
with  a  view  to  profiting,  as  she  has  always 
done,  by  the  ultimate  exhaustion  of  the  bel- 
ligerent Powers.  But  should  she  come  in,  it 
would  be  only  for  the  purpose  of  destroying 
the  German  Navy,  of  which  she  has  watched 
the  growth  with  jealous  alarm.  Even  if  her 
military  resources  allowed  her  to  take  any  part 
in  the  hostilities  on  land,  it  would  not  be  in 
her  interest  and  therefore  she  would  not  care 
to  assist  the  French  Army  which,  if  victorious 
over  Germany,  would  in  its  turn  become  once 
more,  as  it  has  been  in  the  past,  a  source  of 
disquietude  to  the  British  Islands. 

Colonel  Frobenius,  it  should  be  added,  is 
good  enough  to  impute  equally  mean  arriere 
pensees  to  our  alhes.  France  and  Russia, 
according  to  him,  would  like  to  destroy  the 
German  Army,  but  they  would  also  like  to 
preserve  the  German  Navy  as  a  counter  to  be 

11 


PREFACE 

subsequently  employed  against  the  increasing 
predominance  of  England.  It  is  a  singular 
and  also  a  reassuring  feature  in  the  disquisi- 
tions of  all  these  apostles  of  brute  force  that, 
however  sound  their  military  theories  may 
prove  to  have  been,  their  political  calculations 
have,  for  the  most  part,  already  hopelessly 
miscarried.  The  reason  is  not  far  to  seek. 
Their  military  theories  dealt  with  forces  which 
are  capable  of  more  or  less  exact  calculation; 
their  political  estimates  ignored  all  those 
moral  imponderahilia  of  which  Bismarck  him- 
self was  fain  to  recognize  the  immense  impor- 
tance. No  doubt,  in  a  world  ruled  wholly  by 
brute  force,  as  the  world  would  be  if  they  had 
their  way,  they  would  be  right,  for  all  moral 
forces,  ponderable  or  imponderable,  would 
have  ceased  to  exist.  But  happily,  though 
Colonel  Frobenius  has  been  specially  blessed 
by  no  less  exalted  a  personage  than  the  Crown 
Prince  of  Germany  himself,  that  time  is  not 
yet.  Valentine  Chirol. 

12 


'\i 


The  German  Empire's 
Hour  of  Destiny 

It  cannot  be  maintained  that  the  unification 
of  the  German  races  and  the  reconstitution  of 
the  German  Empire  in  1870-1871  awakened 
much  pleasm'c  in  any  European  State.  To 
the  Powers  the  balance  of  Europe  seemed  up- 
set, as  a  Power  worthy  of  respect  arose  in  the 
central  territory  which  had  furnished  them 
with  a  welcome  battle-ground,  and  the  small 
states  had  great  fear  of  "rapacious  and  land 
greedy  Germany"  which  the  experience  of 
forty-three  years  of  peace  has  not  yet  miti- 
gated. And  yet  this  new  strong  military 
Empire  has  proved  itself  by  its  restraint,  even 
to  the  sacrifice  of  its  just  claims,  the  mighty 
shield  to  which  we  are  principally  indebted  for 
this  long  period  of  peace. 

13 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

During  this  time  tliere  has  been  no  lack  of 
occasion  s,  and  it  has  often  required  the  high 
statecraft  of  a  Bismarck  to  promptly  extin- 
guish the  glowing  sparks  which  threatened  to 
set  fire  to  all  Europe;  but  since  Russia  is  no 
longer  bound  by  any  treaty,  since  her  inter- 
ests have  thrown  her  into  the  arms  of  France, 
and  since  England  has  considered  her  eco- 
nomic and  military  dominion  of  the  world 
threatened  by  Germany,  unfavorable  circum- 
stances are  beginning  to  shape  themselves 
against  the  German  Empire,  so  that  it  will  not 
much  longer  be  able  to  patiently  bear  the  bur- 
den and  we  shall  probably  have  to  reckon  in 
the  not  distant  future  with  a  solution  by  re- 
course to  arms.  Let  us  consider  what  inter- 
ests the  principal,  and  therefore  the  most 
dangerous,  opponents  would  really  have  in 
such  a  war  which  will  undoubtedly  involve  the 
whole  of  Europe. 


14 


THE  INEVITABLE  CONFLICT  BE- 
TWEEN GREAT  BRITAIN  AND 

GERMANY 

THE   BRITISH   WORLD  EMPIRE   CAN   ONLY   BE 

SAVED  BY  Germany's  overthrow 

An  American,  but  at  the  same  time  a  keen 
Anglo-Saxon,  Homer  Lea,  recently  published 
a  book,  The  Day  of  the  Saooon,^  in  which  he 
pictures  the  dangers  which  threaten  the  Brit- 
ish world  empire,  inasmuch  as  England  has 
lost  so  much  of  her  fitness  for  war  and  has  so 
neglected  her  war  preparations,  especially 
with  regard  to  the  maintenance  of  a  sufficient 
army  on  land,  that  she  is  no  longer  in  a  posi- 
tion to  protect  her  colossal  possessions.     "The 

1  The  Bay  of  the  Saxon.  Homer  Lea,  Harper  &  Brothers, 
New  York.  Translated  by  Count  E.  Reventlow  under  the 
title  of  Des  Britischen  Reiches  Schicksalettmde  (Berlin,  1913; 
E.  S.  Mittler  &  Sohn). 

15 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE^S 

old  ideals  which  produced  the  world  empire 
have  been  laid  aside.  The  warlike  spirit  is 
only  of  secondary  consideration:  it  is  hardly 
anything  further  than  that  spirit  of  commerce, 
slothful  and  satiated  with  the  accumulation  of 
things  which  are  useless  for  national  and  racial 
progress." 

On  the  other  hand  this  world  empire,  which 
extends  over  and  controls  all  available  corners 
of  the  earth,  presents  grave  difficulties  to  the 
expansion  of  other  nations,  so  that  a  conflict 
with  those  States  which  chiefly  require  expan- 
sion, namely,  Germany  and  Japan,  is  una- 
voidable because  assured  communication  with 
the  oceans  of  the  world,  which  is  vital  to  their 
interests,  furnishes  the  motive  for  such  expan- 
sion, whereas,  on  the  other  hand,  Russia  still 
has  vast  territories  at  the  disposal  of  her  rap- 
idly increasing  population.  Homer  Lea  con- 
siders Germany  the  most  dangerous  opponent 
of  the  British  world  empire,  and  in  his  view 
England  should  never  have  permitted  the  uni- 

16 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

fication  thereof.  England  should  rather  have 
utilized  the  disintegration  and  dismemberment 
of  post-Napoleonic  Europe  in  order  to  make 
herself  over-lord  of  that  Continent.  Whether 
England  had  the  opportunity  and  capacity  to 
do  this  the  author  does  not  attempt  to  con- 
sider. 

As  a  matter  of  fact,  Germany  has  since 
1870  become  dangerous,  not  as  an  opponent, 
but  competitor  of  Great  Britain  in  the  world's 
markets.  The  first  breach  in  the  highly  de- 
veloped industry  of  Great  Britain  was  made 
by  Alfred  Krupp  as  long  ago  as  1851  when 
he  exhibited  at  the  London  Exhibition  against 
the  best  effort  of  English  steel  works,  namely, 
a  block  of  1,000  lbs.,  a  similar  block  of  2,000 
kilogrammes  (4,400  lbs.)  in  weight;  and,  as  he 
was  able  at  the  World's  Exhibition  of  1862  to 
exhibit  breech-loading  guns  and  great  shafts 
for  vessels  together  with  a  block  of  forty  thou- 
sand pounds  in  weight,  he  for  all  time  captured 
for  the  German  iron  trade  the  premier  posi- 

17 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

tion  which  had  so  long  been  stubbornly  held  by 
England. 

The  proved  perfection  of  his  drawn  steel 
guns  in  the  war  of  1870-71  assured  German 
gun  manufacturers  a  position  all  over  the 
world  which,  thanks  to  the  untiring  energy  of 
our  manufacturers,  could  not  be  shaken  by  the 
greatest  efforts  of  English  industry.  Into 
the  breach  opened  by  Krupp  aspiring  repre- 
sentatives of  other  industries  courageously 
sprang  and  the  trade  which  developed  hand  in 
hand  with  them  to  all  corners  of  the  earth 
soon  enabled  Germany  to  become  an  important 
rival  in  the  markets  of  the  world. 

But  not  yet  a  dangerous  one,  because  as  long 
as  the  British  Fleet  had  the  mastery  of  all 
means  of  communication  at  sea  all  the  splen- 
dor of  the  German  Commercial  Marine  could 
be  easily  swept  away  at  the  first  opportunity. 
The  commercial  war  only  became  dangerous 
when  Germany  commenced  to  build  war  ves- 
sels for  protection  of  her  commerce,  and  even- 

18 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

tually  changed  her  ideas  from  what  was  origi- 
nally intended  to  be  only  a  coast  defense  force 
to  a  battle  fleet  which  became  a  considerable 
factor  of  German  war  power.  The  political 
grounds  for  England's  opposition,  therefore, 
primarily  rest  on  an  astonishing  but  frequently 
reappearing  fear  of  our  sea  power.  In  order 
to  obtain  a  clear  view  of  the  motives  hitherto 
underlying  her  policy  we  will  examine  Eng- 
land's past  history. 

Since  that  country  has  played  a  part  in  the 
history  of  sea  Powers,  that  is  to  say  since  she 
determined  to  obtain  for  herself  a  position  on 
the  sea,  her  opponent  has  always  been  from 
time  to  time  the  strongest  sea  Power.  Thus, 
just  as  she  was  the  constant  enemy  of  the  world 
Powers  Spain  and  Portugal  so  long  as  they 
ruled  on  the  sea,  England  turned  against  Hol- 
land as  soon  as  the  latter,  after  her  release 
from  the  Spanish  yoke,  had  won  her  dominion 
on  the  sea.  And  as  soon  as  the  latter,  in  un- 
fortunate misapprehension  of  her  real  require- 

19 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

merits  and  hard  pressed  on  her  frontiers,  neg- 
lected her  navy,  England  immediately  took 
up  her  attitude  against  another  Power, 
France,  which  strengthened  itself  at  sea  under 
the  wise  guidance  of  Colbert.  This  enmity 
England  maintained  so  long  as  no  other  Power 
became  more  dangerous.  On  every  occasion 
when  France,  driven  by  her  restless  ambitious 
policy,  was  involved  in  a  conflict,  we  find  Eng- 
land on  the  side  of  her  opponents  and  also 
even  when  English  interests  were  not  directly 
in  question.  And  we  find  this  continuing  un- 
til some  other  Power  appeared  which  could 
threaten  the  Island  realm  more  directly  than 
our  western  neighbor. 

Slowly  but  uninterruptedly  Russia  had  ex- 
tended its  borders  in  Asia;  with  exceptional 
stubbornness  had  pushed  its  Cossack  hordes 
toward  the  east  and  south,  and  England  saw 
that  she  had  to  make  immediate  preparations, 
as  her  own  efforts  to  expand  from  the  direc- 
tion of  India  would  knock  up  against  Rus- 

20 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

sian  opposition.  The  dangerous  situation  was 
that  in  that  direction  her  strength  left  some- 
thing to  be  desired,  that  is  to  say  she  might 
easily  come  off  second  best  in  a  conflict  in  the 
interior  of  Asia.  So  an  opportunity  had  to  be 
found  by  which  this  future  enemy  could  be 
combated  at  sea.  This  was  found  when  Rus- 
sia attempted,  in  the  Turkish  War,  to  increase 
her  power  in  the  Balkans.  The  Crimean  war 
broke  out  and  we  suddenly  find  England  as 
companion  in  arms  of  her  former  hereditary 
enemy  France,  against  the  new  and  dangerous 
opponent. 

For  some  time  peace  seemed  to  reign  be- 
tween the  two  sea  Powers ;  but  this  state  of  af- 
fairs did  not  last  long.  Even  if  since  that 
date  they  have  not  actually  come  to  blows  it 
may  well  be  remembered  what  embittered  dip- 
lomatic struggles  the  partition  of  Africa  and 
France's  renewed  colonial  expansion  in  Asia 
and  the  Mediterranean  in  the  last  quarter  of 
the  past  century  led  to  between  the  two  Pow- 

21 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

ers.  In  1889  England  effected  a  powerful  in- 
crease of  her  fleet  as  against  France's  sea 
power,  and  in  1898  both  fleets  were  actually 
mobilized  in  consequence  of  the  Fashoda  dis- 
pute.    Then  came  the  first  German  Navy  law. 

At  one  stroke  England's  policy  changed  its 
front.  Whereas  up  to  that  time  the  devel- 
opment of  Germany's  marine  interests  had  not 
been  regarded  from  the  English  point  of  view 
with  very  kindly  feelings  and  attempts  had 
been  made,  where  possible,  to  hinder  them, 
from  that  moment  a  diplomatic  war  set  in 
against  us  which  we  have  since  been  accus- 
tomed to  regard  as  permanent.  We  should 
not  be  deceived  by  a  temporary  apparently 
friendly  disposition;  this  generally  conceals  se- 
cret feelings  of  malevolence.  And  the  whole 
course  of  past  British  history  confirms  this. 

As  soon  as  our  vigorous  determined  Ger- 
man people,  under  the  rule  of  a  far  seeing  sov- 
ereign, resolved  to  create  a  weapon  which  could 
be  utilized  on  the  sea,  then  according  to  Eng- 

22 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

lish  principles  such  must  always  be  fought,  as 
the  most  dangerous — the  enemy.  But  it  must 
be  understood  that  he  is  the  enemy  because  he 
is  building  a  fleet;  when  this  has  been  de- 
stroyed then  at  one  blow  all  cause  of  enmity 
will  have  disappeared.  With  the  fleet  de- 
stroyed it  may  be  concluded  that  German 
commerce  would  be  robbed  of  its  absolutely 
necessary  protection  and  after  destruction  of 
its  mercantile  marine  it  would  withdraw  from 
the  world's  markets  in  a  condition  of  impo- 
tence from  which  it  would  only  be  in  a  position 
to  recover  slowly  and  with  great  exertions. 

Homer  Lea  is,  however,  of  opinion  that  the 
British  World  Empire  can  only  be  saved  by 
the  complete  ruin  of  Germany  and  the  mili- 
tary relations  of  the  two  present  to  him  a 
double  aspect;  ''The  Anglo-Saxon  can  only 
fight  Russia  on  land,  Japan  only  on  the  water ; 
a  war  with  Germany  involves  a  fight  on  land 
and  water.  The  difficulties  of  this  contest  will 
demand  the  full  means  and  powers  of  those 

2S 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

concerned ;  they  will  be  twice  as  great  as  in  an 
Anglo-Russian  contest  or  Anglo-Japanese 
contest."  ...  If  the  British  Navy  destroys 
the  German  Fleet  the  only  result  will  be  the 
same  position  as  before  the  war,  but  at  any  rate 
the  United  Kingdom  will  no  longer  have  to  ap- 
prehend immediate  danger. 

But  even  such  a  victory  would  not  bring 
England  nearer  to  the  destruction  of  the  power 
of  Germany  and  her  possibilities  of  a  world- 
wide expansion  than  was  the  case  before  the 
war,  "for  only  in  the  case  of  a  war  between 
Great  Britain  and  another  Island  nation 
would  the  navy  be  of  paramount  importance. 
In  a  war  with  Russia  the  navy  would  have  no 
place  at  all.  In  a  war  of  aggression  against 
Germany  it  would  be  of  secondary  importance. 
The  British  Navy  has  one  sole  mission;  to  re- 
main mistress  of  the  sea.  From  beginning  to 
end  it  is  directed  to  defense. 

"The  army  alone  possesses  the  capacity  and 
power  of  deciding  a  war  and  bringing  about 

^4j 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

such  a  peace  as  will  prolong  the  existence  of 
the  World  Empire."  He  emphasizes  the  fact 
that  it  is  essential  for  the  future  greatness  of 
Germany  to  destroy  the  Anglo-Saxon  World- 
dominion  and  to  build  up  its  own  World  power 
out  of  the  ruins,  and  he  explains  that  it  is  for 
that  reason  it  is  the  first  duty  of  England  to  de- 
stroy the  German  forces. 

On  such  grounds  Homer  Lea  founds  Great 
Britain's  need  to  create  an  army  which  will  be 
superior  in  any  war  on  land  by  adoption  of 
universal  military  service,  not  only  in  her  Is- 
land kingdom,  but  also  in  her  colonies.  Many 
efforts  have  been  made  in  this  direction  in 
England,  especially  in  recent  times  and  with 
the  support  of  moderate  persons,  without  suc- 
ceeding in  overcoming  the  opposition  of  the 
nation.  Such  a  measure  would  not  only  cut 
into  the  deep  rooted  ideas  of  personal  freedom, 
but  would  also  be  contrary  to  England's  cus- 
tom (which  has  always  been  skilfully  and  hap- 
pily preserv^ed)  of  exploiting  on  land  the  mili- 

25 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

tary  powers  of  other  nations  and  extracting 
from  their  loss  of  blood  the  double  advantage 
of  overcoming  unpleasant  resistance  to  herself 
and  bringing  about  a  vrholesome  weakening  of 
her  allies.  For  possibly  within  a  short  time 
the  latter  might  develop  into  an  enemy  who 
would  have  to  be  fought.  And  might  not 
such  a  custom  be  considered  appropriate  as  re- 
gards Germany? 

But  as  to  this  anon.  Let  us  first  give  a 
hurried  glance  at  the  measures  of  Britain  for 
securing  her  permanent  over-lordship  of  the 
ocean,  which  are  not  only  adapted  to  the  Island 
Empire's  commerce  but  also  to  her  readiness 
for  war.  With  wonderful  acuteness  she  has 
ever  been  successful  in  finding  and,  regardless 
of  others,  annexing  in  all  parts  of  the  ocean 
such  spots  as  control  the  important  routes. 

By  means  of  Gibraltar  the  entrance  to  the 
Mediterranean  is  closed,  through  Malta  the 
connection  between  its  western  and  eastern  ba- 
sins, and  through  Cyprus  she  has  assured  the 

^6 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

entrance  to  the  Suez  Canal,  which  with  Egypt 
is  absolutely  hers.  By  that  means  she  con- 
trols the  shortest  waterway  to  India,  the  In- 
dian Ocean  and  the  Pacific.  But  she  is  also 
in  a  position  to  exercise  her  influence  over  the 
longer  route  round  Africa  by  means  of  St. 
Helena  and  Ascension  as  well  as  her  African 
colonies,  whilst  the  outlet  from  the  Red  Sea 
to  the  Straits  of  Bab-el-Mandeb  is  closed  by 
the  Island  of  Perim.  The  road  to  the  Pacific 
proceeds  further  through  the  Straits  of  Ma- 
lacca, and  at  this  spot  a  British  Naval  Harbor 
was  recently  built  at  Singapore. 

It  should  be  possible  for  the  European 
States  by  construction  of  railways  to  free 
themselves  of  England's  lordship  of  the  water 
routes,  and  Russia  succeeded  in  establishing  a 
connection  with  the  Pacific  by  means  of  the 
Siberian  Railway,  but  the  desire,  thereby  to 
obtain  a  constantly  open  harbor,  was  frus- 
trated with  the  help  of  Japan.  Germany 
commenced  the  construction  of  the  Anatolian 

27 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

and  Bagdad  Railway;  but  soon  thereafter 
England  succeeded  in  wresting  from  Turkey 
the  important  terminus  Koweit  and  so  mul- 
tiplied the  obstacles  which  she  was  already  in  a 
position  to  impose  to  the  outlet  from  the  Per- 
sian Gulf  by  possession  of  the  Island  of  Bah- 
rain and  the  Ras  Dschask.  Only  one  sea- 
route — a  recently  created  one — has  been  with- 
drawn from  British  influence:  the  Panama 
Canal  which  connects  the  Caribbean  Sea  or, 
as  it  may  be  called,  the  American  Mediterran- 
ean, direct  with  the  Pacific,  and  thereby  Great 
Britain's  absolute  command  of  the  sea  has,  it 
must  be  confessed,  suffered  a  serious  blow. 

The  Island  Empire  will  have  to  tolerate 
the  participation  of  other  nations  with  strong 
navies — and  in  the  first  place  in  the  Pacific — 
but  this  only  with  the  neighboring  states  of 
Japan  and  North  America  who  possess  de- 
fensive positions  in  that  ocean,  and  perhaps 
with  France,  who  would  like  to  save  the  re- 
mains of  her  over-sea  possessions  in  India  from 

S8 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

the  covetousness  of  England  and  to  further  ex- 
tend her  dominion  in  Madagascar  and  further 
India.  Not  with  Germany,  which  throughout 
the  whole  distance  of  its  possessions  in  Africa 
to  the  Pacific  does  not  possess  a  single  place  of 
shelter. 

And  it  is  not  only  free  water  ways  which 
navigation  requires,  since  sailing  ships  have 
been  completely  replaced  in  the  navy  and 
largely  in  the  mercantile  marine  by  steam- 
ships. As  all  human  progress  can  only  be  won 
by  sacrifice,  navigation  has  had  to  surrender 
its  unlimited  freedom  of  action  as  against  the 
great  advantages  of  steam:  it  is  absolutely  de- 
pendent on  supplies  of  fuel  for  its  boilers.  But 
as  a  warship  has  to  carry  considerable  loads  in 
the  shape  of  armor,  guns  and  ammunition, 
even  the  largest  battleships  cannot  exceed  a 
certain  load  of  fuel  and  to  that  extent  the  du- 
ration and  length  of  the  voyage,  with  supplies 
sufficient  to  maintain  a  certain  rate  of  speed 
without  re-coaling,  are  limited;  that  is  to  say, 

29 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

the  useful  activity  of  the  ship  suffers.  There- 
fore if  supplies  cannot  be  renewed  the  ship 
is  just  as  incapable  of  continuing  her  voyage 
as  a  locomotive,  which  has  run  out  of  coals  and 
water. 

With  the  introduction  of  steamships  all  sea- 
faring nations  were  therefore  obliged  to  take 
into  consideration  the  acquisition  of  coaling 
stations  at  certain  intervals,  for  which  purpose 
of  course  only  islands  or  places  on  the  coast 
were  suitable  which  presented  ample  protec- 
tion for  shipment  of  coal  and  to  which  end  it 
was  necessary  to  acquire  the  proprietorship. 
And  at  this  point  Great  Britain  proceeded  to 
acquire  for  herself  not  only  an  efficient  medium 
in  her  commercial  competition  with  Germany, 
but  also  in  case  of  need  a  considerable  obstacle 
to  the  employment  of  Germany's  navy  in  war 
time. 

Great  Britain  was  clever  enough  to  be  able 
to  frustrate  every  attempt  of  the  German  Em- 
pire to  acquire  points  of  support  or  at  any  rate 

30 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

coaling  stations  on  the  coasts  of  the  seas  of  the 
world.  All  movements  and  enterprises  of 
German  ships  were  followed  with  suspicious 
eyes  so  as  immediately^  and  actively  to  op- 
pose by  diplomatic  means  or  even  by  direct 
threats  all  attempts  to  acquire  any  spot  adapt- 
able as  a  coal  base  even  if  such  intention  were 
only  remotely  suspected. 

Every  one  will  remember  that  in  the  dis- 
pute over  IMorocco  France  showed  herself 
quite  willing  to  hand  over  to  Germany  certain 
territory,  but  England's  threatening  attitude 
stiffened  her  back  and  compelled  us  to  give  up 
all  claim  to  any  Moroccan  possession.  In  con- 
sequence of  this  attitude  of  our  cousins  across 
the  Channel,  Germany's  mercantile  marine 
and  navy  are  obliged  to  rely  for  their  coal  sup- 
plies on  the  depots  of  other  nations  and  prin- 
cipally of  England.  In  addition  to  the  fact 
that  our  ships  have  to  pay  the  prices  asked  for 
this  hospitality  and  the  advantage  goes  to  the 
foreigner,  it  becomes  a  serious  question  where 

31 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

we  are  to  find  anywhere  on  the  globe,  friendly 
nations  who  will  be  able  to  provide  our  ships 
with  fuel  in  time  of  war.  The  harbors  of  Eng- 
land and  France  will  assuredly  be  closed  to  us, 
and  it  is  more  than  doubtful  whether  the  Col- 
onies of  small  European  States  would,  in  face 
of  Great  Britain's  threats,  dare  to  remain 
open  to  us. 

Here  we  have  a  very  substantial  instance 
where  we  require  freedom  of  action  and  where 
England  has  fettered  our  requirements  for  ex- 
pansion ;  in  this  direction  it  is  necessary  for  us 
sooner  or  later  to  break  these  chains  which  are, 
if  maintained,  intolerable  to  our  navigation, 
and  must  in  case  of  war  constitute  a  grave 
danger.  But  to  this  end  it  is  not  necessary 
to  destroy  the  Anglo-Saxon  World  dominion 
which  Homer  Lea  declares  to  be  absolutely 
necessary  for  the  future  greatness  of  Germany. 
Germany's  wants  could  be  easily  satisfied  out 
of  the  excessive  abundance  of  England's  pos- 
sessions.    But  it  seems  as  if  England  desires 

32 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

to  continue  the  contest  for  sole  command 
of  the  sea.  And  therefore  it  must  be  her  prin- 
ciple always  to  fight  the  State  that  may  be- 
come the  most  dangerous,  and  first  of  all  Ja- 
pan before  the  latter  grows  into  too  powerful 
an  opponent  in  the  Pacific.  But  for  such  pur- 
pose she  would  require  all  her  maritime  forces 
and  this  may  appear  to  her  a  doubtful  enter- 
prise in  face  of  the  strong  German  Navy.  For 
that  reason  she  favors  the  course  of  using  the 
first  favorable  opportunity  of  destroying  the 
latter,  her  present  opponent,  and  thus  winning 
full  freedom  of  action  in  the  Pacific.  But  for 
this  object  the  destruction  of  the  German  Fleet 
would  be  sufficient  and  it  would  not  require  the 
complete  destruction  of  the  German  Empire, 
which  Homer  Lea  considers  necessary. 

Great  Britain  has  acquired  another  arm 
through  her  network  of  cables  by  which  she 
has  bound  together  all  parts  of  the  world 
with  the  Island  Kingdom.  A  rapid  means  of 
communication  of  news  is  of  exceptional  im- 

33 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

portance  for  commerce  as  well  as  for  naval 
warfare.  It  enables  a  concentration  of  man- 
agement which  can  take  advantage  of  every 
favorable  situation  and  which  is  in  a  position 
to  avoid  every  threatening  danger  and  to 
spring  on  the  enemy,  who  is  excluded  from 
this  news  service,  the  most  unpleasant  sur- 
prises. 

So  long  as  England  was  the  sole  mistress  of 
the  whole  cable  service  she  could  at  will  close 
its  use  to  other  nations  and  impose  complete 
deafness  and  blindness  on  them  with  regard 
to  events  in  distant  spots,  keeping  for  herself 
alone  means  of  sight  and  hearing  and  so  secure 
to  herself  all  the  advantages  of  initiative.  The 
acknowledgment  of  this  danger  has  not  so  long 
back  induced  other  nations  to  lay  cables  which 
are  capable  of  communicating  news  across  the 
sea  independently  of  the  English  connections, 
at  any  rate  in  respect  of  some  zones.  But  in 
the  first  place  this  is  not  a  complete  network, 
and  secondly  there  is  some  danger  that  in  case 

34 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

of  war  Great  Britain  might  cut  the  cables 
which  are  not  under  her  control  and  render 
them  useless. 

The  invention  of  wireless  telegraphy  now 
provides  a  means  of  release  from  cable  connec- 
tions. England  therefore  followed  the  fur- 
ther development  of  this  science  with  great  at- 
tention and  was  successful  in  procuring  the 
establishment  of  the  Marconi  Company  in 
England.  She  made  the  greatest  efforts  to 
secure  the  monopoly  of  wireless  telegraphy 
and  therefore  to  rule  the  world  by  this  means 
of  communication.  Thanks  to  German  sci- 
ence this  did  not  succeed.  We  have  surpassed 
the  efficiency  of  Marconi's  apparatus  and  by 
that  means  have  won  for  ourselves  certain  com- 
pensation for  the  network  of  cables  which  we 
do  not  possess.  True,  up  to  now  only  within 
certain  limits,  that  is  to  say,  in  so  far  as  our 
apparatus  are  able  to  work  efficiently  and  in  so 
far  as  we  possess  stations  which  can  pass  on 
news.     It  is  therefore  of  the  greatest  impor- 

35 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

tance  that  the  Emperor  was  recently  able  to 
exchange  a  wireless  conversation  with  the 
President  of  the  United  States  of  America 
by  means  of  our  apparatus. 

It  is  quite  comprehensible  and  universally 
acknowledged  that  England  by  way  of  precau- 
tionary measures  against  a  serious  conflict 
with  Germany  has  secured  powerful  allies.  It 
is  not  yet  quite  clear  to  what  extent,  in  addition 
to  Russia  and  France,  smaller  States  such  as 
Belgium,  Denmark,  the  Balkan  States,  etc., 
are  concerned.  As  they  will  have  to  reckon 
not  only  with  the  German  Empire  but  also 
with  the  members  of  the  Triple  Alliance,  it 
has  become  apparent  that  the  parts  which  the 
three  Powers  will  play  have  been  distributed. 
Great  Britain  herself  is  acknowledgedly  work- 
ing to  conceal  her  objects  and  to  lull  to  sleep 
the  German  Michael,  but  on  the  other  hand 
presents  a  stern  countenance  to  Italy.  The 
latter's  growing  fleet  and  especially  the  pos- 
se 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

session  of  the  Turkish  islands  in  the  ^gean 
Sea,  which  have  remained  in  her  possession 
since  the  Turco-Itahan  War,  constitute  a  very 
uncomfortable  factor  for  the  complete  com- 
mand of  the  Mediterranean. 

It  even  appears  that  the  Porte  is  quite  satis- 
fied and  therefore  delays  the  withdrawal  of  the 
last  of  her  officers  from  the  Tripoli  Hinter- 
land, as  meanwhile  Italy  is  justified  in  retain- 
ing the  Islands,  a  circumstance  which  ensures 
them  against  attempts  by  others  to  secure 
them.  Now,  as  Sir  Edward  Grey  has  ex- 
pressed the  opinion  that  the  situation  in  Eu- 
rope will  not  become  normal  so  long  as  a  great 
Power  possesses  these  Islands,  it  is  easy  to  see 
how  uneasily  Italy  regards  the  pressure  which 
the  English  Minister  desires  to  exercise.  And 
the  more  so  as  at  the  same  time  he  was  desirous 
of  leaving  the  evacuation  of  the  part  of  Al- 
bania, which  was  still  in  the  possession  of  the 
Greeks,  entirely  in  their  discretion,  and  they 

S7 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

in  raising  "Holy  Battalions"  in  the  territory 
in  question  do  not  present  a  very  complaisant 
attitude. 

I  should  put  against  Homer  Lea's  propo- 
sition, that  Great  Britain  to  maintain  her  po- 
sition as  a  World  Power  must  annihilate  Ger- 
many— that  is  to  say,  not  only  rob  her  of  her 
fleet  and  cripple  her  commerce,  but  also  de- 
stroy her  land  forces — the  view  that  England 
can  have  no  desire  to  annihilate  our  army. 
That  would  be  contrary  to  the  whole  of  her  pol- 
icy to  date.  A  strong  Power  on  land  on  the 
European  Continent  is  indispensable  to  her 
so  that  she  may  induce  it  to  go  to  war  on  land 
against  any  State  which  might  become  dan- 
gerous to  her  sea  power.  This  is  the  principle 
on  which  she  has  always  played  the  political 
game  with  the  Powers  on  the  mainland.  For 
example,  at  the  commencement  of  the  Aus- 
trian War  of  Succession  France  was  Eng- 
land's most  dangerous  rival  on  the  seas,  as  she 
was  considerably  increasing  her  Colonial  pos- 

38 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

sessions.     Austria  was  the  great  Power  on 
land,  and  therefore  the  Island  Kingdom  lent 
her  support  in  the  struggle  against  Prussia 
who  was  allied  with  France.     After  she  had 
commenced  in  1755  to  come  into  direct  conflict 
with  France  at  sea  she  had  to  forego  assistance 
to  Austria,  who  had  become  allied  with  Russia 
and  France  to  overcome  Frederick  the  Great, 
and  placed  herself  on  the  side  of  the  King  of 
Prussia  whom  she  had  recently  been  fighting. 
But  when  she  had  attained  her  object,  when  in 
1758  she  had  driven  the  French  ships  from  the 
East  Indies  and  taken  the  French  possessions 
in  Senegal,  when  in  1760  by  the  capture  of 
Montreal    she    had    torn    Canada   from    the 
French  and  had  put  to  shame  their  navy  that 
she  could  put  her  full  power  in  the  West  In- 
dies and  limit  herself  in  European  waters  to 
a  blockade,  when  therefore  the  soaring  power 
of  France  had  been  utterly  destroyed  in  all 
quarters  of  the  globe,  she  quite  unexpectedly 
withdrew  her  support  from  the  Prussian  Alli- 

39 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

ance.  Prussia  had  done  her  duty  in  leading 
off  French  activity  from  the  sea.  She  could 
now  look  after  herself  in  deahng  with  her  en- 
emy, as  England  had  no  further  cause  for 
damaging  the  latter.  This  sudden  change  of 
front  is  usually  associated  with  the  resigna- 
tion of  Pitt,  as  if  the  latter's  friendship  with 
Frederick  had  determined  the  attitude  of 
Great  Britain.  But  such  sentimental  feel- 
ings cannot  be  credited  to  an  English  States- 
man. 

Austria  is  no  longer  capable  of  continuing 
to  play  the  part  against  France  which  Eng- 
land formerly  assigned  to  her.  On  the  other 
hand  a  new  Power  has  arisen  in  Russia, 
whose  vital  interests  are  in  direct  conflict  with 
those  of  England.  The  equilibrium  can  only 
be  'maintained  as  regards  Russia  if  a  strong 
military  force  can  be  put  up  against  her. 
France  is  not  suitable  for  this  purpose,  as  after 
the  prostration  of  Germany  the  former  would 
immediately  re-enter  the  lists  as  the  second 

40 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

European  sea  and  Colonial  Power  against 
England.  This  role  against  Russia  can  there- 
fore only  be  assigned  to  Germany;  and  the  al- 
liance of  England  and  Russia  against  Ger- 
many which  is  obviously  contrary  to  the  in- 
terests of  both  sides,  in  addition  to  the  fervent 
wish  to  break  the  latter's  commercial  power, 
is  also — perhaps  only  unconsciously — invested 
with  the  object  of  thoroughly  undermining  the 
old  friendship  of  both  States,  in  order  to  play 
off  the  German  against  the  Russian  at  some 
future  date.  Therefore  England  has  no  ob- 
ject in  annihilating  Germany's  land  forces — 
on  the  contrary  her  object  in  war  can  only  he 
the  destruction  of  the  latter's  Navy,  sparing 
if  possible  her  Army, 

The  question  comes  whether  the  superior 
English  battle  fleet  is  alone  capable  of  doing 
this.  This  question  is  answered  by  a  British 
author,  J.  S.  Corbett,  an  acknowledged  expert 
and  lecturer  on  Naval  Strategy,  who  has  laid 
down  universally  accepted  principles  in  his 

41 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

work  Some  Principles  of  Maritime  Strategy, 
and  relies  on  the  methods  of  conducting  a 
Naval  War  which  have  hitherto  prevailed. 
According  to  him  the  whose  history  of  naval 
warfare  shows  that  a  fight  between  two  fleets 
directed  to  the  destruction  of  one  of  them  can 
only  take  place  with  the  consent  of  both  par- 
ties. The  desire  of  both  sides  not  to  avoid 
a  decisive  action  can  alone  bring  about  such 
a  result  in  open  battle;  but  this  can  only  be 
presumed  if  each  side  considers  it  has  a  chance 
of  success,  that  is  to  say,  if  they  are  approxi- 
mately equal  in  strength.  If  this  be  not  so, 
the  weaker  side  will  according  to  experience 
diligently  endeavor  to  draw  the  other  on  and 
so  to  gradually  weaken  him  by  small  attacks 
and  diminish  his  powers  that  a  grand  assault 
may  eventually  be  risked  with  chances  of  suc- 
cess. In  the  face  of  such  tactics  the  stronger 
side,  as  Coi^bett  maintains,  has  always  found 
itself  in  a  difficult  position. 

Every  day  by  which  a  decision  is  postponed 

43 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

wastes  much  money — and  nowadays  coal  in 
addition,  which  it  is  always  difficult  to  re- 
place. Every  day  may  bring  unpleasant  sur- 
prises, and  therefore  he  must  try  and  bring 
about  a  decisive  result  as  quickly  as  possible. 
To  this  end  only  two  ways  are  open;  he  must 
either  attempt  to  destroy  by  force  under  fire 
of  coast  defenses  the  obstructions  by  means  of 
which  the  enemy  has  secured  himself  in  his  hid- 
ing place,  and  force  an  entrance  into  the  har- 
bor into  which  the  latter  has  retired — (and  he 
has  rarely  possessed  the  courage  for  that)  — 
or  he  must  attempt  to  bombard  him  out.  This 
is  however  not  usually  possible  from  seawards 
in  the  case  of  well  designed  war  harbors,  but 
only  through  forces  which  have  been  landed 
for  this  purpose  and  which  have  been  provided 
with  the  necessary  heavy  artillery  so  as  to  win 
by  quick  assault  positions  which  will  enable 
the  shelling  of  the  enemy's  fleet  anchored  in 
harbor,  and  compel  it  to  come  out  and  seek 
battle. 

4iS 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

Examples  of  this  are  furnished  by  the  tac- 
tics of  the  Americans  at  Santiago  and  the 
Japanese  at  Port  Arthur.  The  question 
arises  whether  in  the  coming  war  with  Ger- 
many the  Continental  Powers  for  the  time  be- 
ing alhed  with  Great  Britain  will  perform  this 
duty,  and  this  cannot  be  affirmed  with  cer- 
tainty because  the  interests  clash.  Both  Pow- 
ers seek  a  decision  by  the  nearest  road  between 
Berlin  and  their  Capitals  and  have  no  induce- 
ment to  divide  and  weaken  their  forces  by  de- 
voting not  inconsiderable  masses  of  troops  and 
heavy  material  to  the  investment  of  our  marine 
fortresses.  They  would  much  rather  destroy 
Germany's  land  forces  but  if  possible  spare 
her  navy  as  a  menace  to  their  future  enemy 
Great  Britain.  They  will  be  just  as  much 
alive  as  we  are  to  the  hitherto  constant 
policy  of  England,  and  to  foresee  such  fu- 
ture hostility.  Therefore  if  England  wishes 
to  attain  her  object  in  war,  the  destruction 
of   the   German   Navy,   she   will   nolens  vo- 

44 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

lens  have  to  devote  her  own  forces  thereto  and 
we  shall  not  be  far  wrong  in  assuming  that  the 
British  expeditionary  force  of  150,000  men 
will  be  destined  as  an  invading  force  to  sup- 
port her  fleet. 

The  further  question,  how  this  invading 
force  is  to  be  handled,  especially  to  what  ex- 
tent it  is  to  take  part  in  the  operations  of  the 
alhed  land  forces  and  to  be  treated  as  reen- 
forcements  thereof  may  likewise  be  answered 
by  some  words  of  the  English  naval  strategist. 
They  are  as  follows: — 

*'This  is  certain,  whoever  commands  the  sea 
possesses  full  freedom  of  trade  and  can  derive 
as  much  or  as  little  profit  from  the  war  as  he 
pleases,  whilst  even  the  strongest  land  force 
will  experience  great  difficulties."  .  .  . 

"If  the  scope  of  the  war  was  unlimited,  and 
in  consequence  thereof  the  whole  power  of  the 
enemy  is  called  out  on  that  principle,  it  is  clear 
that  a  decisive  result  could  only  be  obtained 
after  his  forces  have  been  completely  shat- 

45 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

tered.  If  it  was  not  the  intention  to  attempt 
this  then  it  was  false  policy  to  endeavor  to 
reach  the  goal  by  force,  that  is  to  say  the  war 
should  not  have  been  entered  into.  In  the 
case  of  a  limited  object  the  annihilation  of  the 
whole  of  the  enemy's  defenses  is  outside  the 
scope  of  what  was  necessary."  .  .  . 

"If  we  now  turn  to  England's  experience 
in  Continental  wars  we  find  that  she  often  took 
part  in  a  war  on  land,  and  we  also  find  that  she 
almost,  without  exception,  ran  up  against  the 
great  reluctance  of  the  people,  as  if  there  were 
something  in  it  repugnant  to  national  in- 
stincts." .  .  . 

These  three  quotations  give  us  a  complete 
picture  of  England's  customary  manner  of 
taking  part  in  the  wars  of  Continental  Pow- 
ers. Since  the  commencement  of  the  seven- 
teenth century  she  always  had  at  her  disposal 
the  necessary  means  of  assuring  herself  of  the 
command  of  the  sea,  or  at  any  rate  of  main- 
taining a  very  favorable  situation,  which  Cor- 

46 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

bett  calls  "combative  command  of  the  sea." 
This  fortunate  country  was  almost  invariably 
in  the  position  of  interfering  in  the  wars  of 
European  Powers  and  "getting  for  herself 
as  much  as  she  wanted." 

What  she  did  want,  we  see  from  the  second 
quotation.  Corbett  is  an  admirer  of  our  strat- 
egist Clausewitz,  and  follows  that  teacher  in 
discriminating  between  the  two  different  kinds 
of  war,  the  limited  and  unlimited.  Clause- 
witz describes  it  in  the  words:  "This  two-fold 
method  of  war  consists  of,  (1)  where  the  ob- 
ject is  the  prostration  of  the  enemy,  either  an- 
nihilating him  politically  or  simply  disarming 
him  and  therefore  forcing  him  to  the  desired 
conditions  of  peace,  and  (2)  where  it  is  simply 
desired  to  wrest  from  him  certain  possessions 
on  the  frontiers  of  his  Kingdom  either  for  the 
purpose  of  keeping  them  permanently  or  using 
them  as  a  useful  means  of  exchange  on  the  dec- 
laration of  peace." 

The  first  case  demands  the  entire  exertions 

47 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

of  the  whole  people,  the  second  does  not. 
Clausewitz  gives  an  illuminating  example  of 
war  with  limited  objects  in  a  Memorandum 
of  1830-31  which  contains  a  project  of  a  war 
against  France.  Circumstances  did  not  per- 
mit the  taking  into  consideration  of  the  com- 
plete prostration  of  that  State,  and  the  pro- 
gram of  our  strategists  was  therefore  di- 
rected to  making  the  annexation  of  Belgium 
the  real  object  of  the  attack. 

"This  country  of  moderate  size  and  great  re- 
sources is  surrounded  by  Holland  and  Ger- 
many; consequently  after  its  annexation  the 
army  of  occupation  will  not  find  itself  at  the 
corner  of  a  triangle  extending  into  a  large  hos- 
tile territory,  and  for  that  reason  such  an  an- 
nexation could  be  permanently  maintained 
under  ordinary  circumstances.  .  .  .  However 
strongly  the  French  may  establish  themselves 
in  Belgium  they  would  still,  as  they  are  situ- 
ated, be  weaker  there  than  in  the  middle  of 
their  own  country.     When  the  command  of 

48 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

the  Meuse  has  been  obtained  the  annexation  of 
Belgium  may  be  regarded  as  an  actual  fact. 
.  .  .  We  therefore  consider  that  if  the  allied 
forces  can  gain  a  victory  anywhere  (and  this 
must  be  considered  as  necessary  *in  every  of- 
fensive design'),  such  victory  would  produce 
the  easiest  yet  least  secure  result  in  the  annex- 
ation of  Belgium." 

If  we  examine  the  history  of  England  we 
must  asknowledge  that  she  at  times  exerted 
herself  to  the  uttermost  by  the  utilization  of 
individual  portions  of  her  armament,  navy, 
and  finances,  but  never  has  known  that  demand 
on  the  whole  of  her  population  by  calling  out 
every  man  capable  of  bearing  arms  as  Prussia 
and  Germany  did  in  1813  and  France  in  1870. 
She  was  careful  to  avoid  this  by  never  having 
in  view  unlimited  aims,  which  is  a  brilliant 
illustration  of  Clausewitz's  precepts.  She 
never,  with  the  exception  of  her  colonial  wars, 
desired  to  completely  annex  any  country,  or 
completely  annihilate  any  enemy. 

49 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

The  objects  which  she  desired  to  attain  by 
her  own  powers  were  also  hmited;  with  the 
exception  of  certain  over-sea  possessions,  the 
destruction  of  hostile  marine  forces  or  com- 
mercial interests.  This  may  have  arisen 
partly  from  a  very  clever  policy  and  partly 
also  may  have  had  its  reason  in  the  sentiments 
of  the  people,  as  mentioned  by  Corbett.  The 
English  people  never  had  any  feeling  or  sym- 
pathy for  the  exacting  military  service  neces- 
sary for  wars  on  land,  which  presses  the  rifle 
into  the  hands  of  the  masses  and  tears  them 
from  their  hearths  and  homes.  She  either  em- 
ployed mercenaries  for  this  purpose  or  knew 
how  to  make  her  allies  bleed  for  her,  and  as  far 
as  the  latter  were  concerned  the  war  easily  be- 
came an  unlimited  one.  In  this  respect  we 
need  only  refer  again  to  the  wars  of  Frederick 
the  Great. 

Therefore,  England  only  wages  wars  of  lim- 
ited scope  and  employs  her  army  unwillingly. 
From  this  point  of  view  one  may  draw  conclu- 

50 


\  HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

sions  as  to  her  future  conduct  with  regard  to 
the  employment  of  her  army  of  invasion  as  to 
which  Corbett  again  gives  an  indication.  He 
says :— • 

"The  expeditionary  force  must  either  un- 
reservedly take  part  as  an  organic  unit  of  the 
Power  which  is  conducting  the  unlimited  war, 
or  a  certain  territorial  area  of  operations  must 
be  assigned  to  it  with  independent  leadership 
and  with  an  organization  independent  of  the 
Commander-in-Chief  of  the  allied  force,  but 
with  limited  activity."  .  .  . 

"But  that  which  may  he  called  the  British  or 
^maritime  method  is  in  fact  the  application  of 
limited  methods  in  the  conduct  of  an  unlimited 
war  in  combination  with  the  larger  operations 
of  our  allies — a  method  which  has  generally 
been  open  to  ns  as  it  has  enabled  our  command 
of  the  sea  to  select  a  theater  of  war  which  was 
in  fact  limited"  .  .  . 

This  illustrates  the  whole  peculiarity  of 
England's  conduct  of  wars  on  land.     They 

51 


^  ^ 


.1.^3869 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

presume  that  their  continental  ally  will  have 
to  conduct  an  unlimited  war,  as  the  chief  bur- 
den will  be  gradually  put  on  to  him.  It  is  on 
the  other  hand  emphasized  as  typically  Brit- 
ish that  the  expeditionary  force  must,  if  possi- 
ble, be  kept  away  from  the  latter  plan.  Its 
cooperation,  therefore,  as  an  organic  portion 
of  our  enemy's  forces  is  only  to  be  looked  for 
if  Great  Britain  actually  has  no  other  means 
of  reaching  her  special  goal. 

But  the  clearest  explanation  of  all  is  af- 
forded by  a  glance  at  military  history,  as  Cor- 
bett  explains  it. 

Since  the  war  of  the  Spanish  succession,  in 
which  Marlborough  with  the  British  auxiliary 
forces  marched  deep  into  the  South  of  Ger- 
many in  order  to  fight  in  combination  with  the 
Imperial  troops  sanguinary  and  decisive  bat- 
tles against  Louis  XIV,  an  English  force  has 
never  again  wandered  about  on  the  Continent 
whenever  the  slightest  uncertainty  was  pres- 
ent.    Particularly  in  Holland,  and  in  the  wars 

52 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

of  Frederick  the  Great  in  Hanover,  that  is  to 
say,  always  close  to  the  sea  coast,  we  see  Brit- 
ish troops  carrying  on  a  slow  and  laborious  war 
and  carefully  avoiding  a  decisive  result.  Who 
will  forget  the  feeble  behavior  of  the  Duke  of 
Cumberland,  of  which  Fontenoy  in  1745,  La- 
feld  in  1747,  Hastenbeck  in  1757,  and  the  cap- 
itulation at  Kloster  Zeven  are  examples? 

Likewise  in  the  course  of  the  Spanish  War 
against  Napoleon,  in  which  the  unlucky  Moore 
was  replaced  by  the  more  skilful  Lord  Welles- 
ley,  we  see,  so  long  as  the  enemy  was  not  ren- 
dered completely  powerless,  a  careful  mainte- 
nance of  communication  with  the  sea.  And 
wherever  such  was  interrupted  on  one  side  it 
was  at  once  skilfully  reunited  in  another  direc- 
tion. On  one  occasion  only  do  we  see  an  Eng- 
lish force  taking  part  in  a  decisive  battle,  at 
Waterloo.  But  on  this  occasion  hesitation  to 
obtain  a  decisive  result  presented  the  danger 
of  a  very  undesirable  prolongation  of  the  war 
in  case   of  defeat  of  the  allied  continental 

53 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

forces,  and  Wellington  found  himself  in  a  pe- 
culiar difficulty, 

''Thereforej  all  through  we  see  the  endeavor 
to  keep  up  communication  with  the  base,  that 
is  to  say,  for  England:,  with  the  sea  coast,  in 
so  far  as  practicable  harbors  are  available  for 
embarkation,  and  to  avoid  every  decisive  action 
so  long  as  this  is  not  enforced  by  the  situation; 
and  at  the  same  time  to  avoid  too  close  a  junc- 
tion with  the  operations  of  the  allies:  that  is 
what  may  be  called  the  British  or  maritime 
method/^ 

With  these  premises  we  may  now  endeavor 
to  picture  to  ourselves  the  probable  procedure 
of  Great  Britain  in  case  of  a  conflict  with  Ger- 
many. 

She  would,  of  course,  most  of  all  desire  en- 
tirely independent  action  for  her  land  forces, 
and  if  she  is  assured,  through  the  preparations 
and  available  numbers  of  her  allies'  forces, 
that  the  latter  will  be  able  to  deal  alone  with 
our  armies,  she  will  be  able  to  preserve  for  her- 

54i 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

self  this  independence  through  being  able  to 
choose  the  theater  of  her  operations.  If  she 
cannot  be  certain  of  this,  and  if  the  independ- 
ent action  of  her  expeditionary  forces  becomes 
doubtful,  then  she  will  have  to  take  part  as  an 
organic  unit  in  the  larger  operations.  In  that 
case  a  landing  in  Belgium,  previously  entirely 
freed  from  the  influence  of  German  troops, 
would  enable  the  British  troops  to  furnish  an 
extension  of  the  French  left  wing. 

We  are  involuntarily  reminded  of  the  oppo- 
sition which  was  raised  in  the  English  Press 
to  Holland's  scheme  of  renewing  the  old  forti- 
fications of  Flushing,  and  replacing  them  with 
new  constructions,  which  would  not  only  pro- 
tect the  recently  enlarged  harbor  against  an 
enemy  but  would  also  prove  an  obstacle  to  the 
navigation  of  the  West  Scheld  to  Antwerp. 

In  view  of  the  indisputable  right  of  the  sov- 
ereign state  to  provide  an  important  harbor 
for  the  protection  of  its  fleet  (Holland  only 
possesses  one  other,  namely,  the  Helder) ,  and 

55 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

to  fulfil  the  duties  imposed  upon  it  by  its  neu- 
trality, it  strikes  one  as  peculiar  that  the  Press 
of  France  and  Belgium,  in  combination  with 
the  English  Press,  endeavored  by  ingenious 
and  untenable  arguments  and  representations 
to  intimidate  the  Dutch  into  wrecking  the 
plans  of  the  Government. 

Therefrom  must  be  drawn  the  evidence  for 
the  assumption  that  England,  in  case  of  a  con- 
flict with  Germany,  intends  to  land  her  expe- 
ditionary force  in  Antwerp  so  as  to  support 
France.  And  even  if  the  new  fortifications  of 
Flushing,  whilst  limited  to  a  single  fort  on  the 
right  bank,  may  not  be  capable  of  holding  out 
any  length  of  time  against  an  assault,  yet  they 
might  exert  a  very  disturbing  influence  on  the 
entrance  of  such  a  large  fleet  of  transports  as 
would  be  required  for  the  passage  of  the  Brit- 
ish Army,  and  would  very  much  delay  an 
intended  landing  at  Antwerp.  Everything 
would  depend  upon  the  great  speed  of  this 
movement.  Otherwise  British  assistance  would 

56 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

come  too  late  and  would  be  practically  value- 
less. 

Let  us  assume  that  the  British  expeditionary 
force  would  by  this  means,  or  some  other,  join 
the  French  left  wing  and  take  a  timely  part 
in  the  operations;  and  if  we  assume  that  the 
first  great  success  will  have  been  obtained  over 
our  army  and  that  the  latter  has  its  hands  full 
with  the  French  forces,  then  the  curtain  will 
draw  up  on  the  second  act  of  the  operations  of 
the  British  troops,  as  they  will  then  be  able  to 
free  themselves  from  the  undesirable  "unlim- 
ited" method  and  be  able  to  proceed  independ- 
ently, that  is  to  say,  they  will  seek  "a  limited 
area  of  operation."  According  to  Great  Brit- 
ain's War  Game  this  can  only  be  the  German 
North  Sea  coast,  to  the  harbors  of  which  the 
German  fleet,  as  being  the  weaker,  will  in  our 
view  have  retired.  The  British  Na\y  will  be 
ready  lying  in  wait  for  the  German  ships  which 
will  be  driven  out  by  the  artillery  of  the  land 
forces   attacking  the  fortresses,   and  will  be 

57 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

ready  to  destroy  it,  as  was  done  at  Port  Ar- 
thur. 

What  period  of  time  this  would  demand  it 
is  impossible  to  judge.  The  experience  of 
Port  Arthur  warns  us  that  it  would  involve 
heavy  sacrifices  both  of  time  and  lives.  At 
any  rate,  the  goal  cannot  be  reached  in  a  turn 
of  the  hand;  and,  therefore,  it  is  not  impossi- 
ble that  the  investing  army's  lines  of  communi- 
cation with  French  or  Belgian  harbors  will  be 
gravely  endangered  by  German  operations. 
England  has  always  shown  great  skill  in 
changing  her  lines  of  communication  when 
these  were  in  danger.  A  good  example  of  her 
methods  under  such  circumstances  is  furnished 
by  England's  Campaign  in  Spain  against  Na- 
poleon in  the  years  1808  and  1809. 

Napoleon  advanced  victoriously  from  Mad- 
rid against  the  British  troops  in  Portugal. 
An  English  Corps  under  the  command  of  Sir 
John  Moore,  which  he  believed  to  be  in  re- 
treat, evaded  him  and  threatened  his  lines  of 

58 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

communication  from  the  direction  of  the  Do- 
uro.  On  Napoleon  turning  against  him  and 
breaking  his  (Moore's)  lines  of  communica- 
tion with  Lisbon  he  withdrew  to  the  north- 
west, followed  by  the  French  Marshal, 
Soult,  and  in  the  meantime  the  British  Gen- 
eral, Baird,  had  landed  at  Corunna.  Al- 
though the  ships  were  late,  and  Moore  had  to 
give  battle  in  front  of  the  town,  in  which  he 
himself  fell,  the  embarkation  was  successful 
and  the  English  Corps  was  enabled  to  return 
home. 

In  case  of  a  war  against  Germany,  England 
has  made  ample  preparations  and  has  secured 
herself  a  second  line  of  communication,  as  she 
has  exercised  great  influence  on  the  enlarge- 
ment of  the  hitherto  very  small  harbor  of  Es- 
bjerg,  on  the  Danish  West  Coast  of  Jutland. 
Esbjerg  is  only  about  twenty-eight  kilometers 
(44.8  miles)  from  the  Danish-German  Fron- 
tier, and  possesses  a  bay  including  an  outer, 
inner,  boat,  and  fishing  harbor  of  about  15.7 

59 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

hectares  (39.2  acres)  with  3.8  (121/2  ft.)  to 
6  meters  (19.8  ft.)  depth  of  water.  The  chan- 
nel through  the  Grautief  has  a  uniform  depth 
of  over  7.5  (25  ft.),  but  was  closed  by  a  sand 
bar,  through  which  a  passage  was  dredged. 

These  conditions  were  quite  sufficient  for 
the  trade  in  butter  and  eggs  carried  in  Eng- 
lish ships.  But  now  the  harbor  basins  are 
being  first  extended  to  40.50  hectares  (101.2 
acres),  and  2,800  (5,5  miles)  meters  of  quay 
are  being  built,  which  enclose  a  harbor  space 
capable  of  being  dredged  out  to  approximately 
80  hectares  (200  acres),  and  the  depth  of 
water  is  to  be  brought  up  to  eight  meters  (26.4 
ft.).  It  is  obvious  that  such  a  dispropor- 
tionate extension  of  the  harbor  works  can- 
not be  attributed  to  the  export  of  butter  and 
eggs. 

There  can  be  no  doubt  that  in  case  of  a  war 
Denmark  will  be  found  on  the  side  of  our  ene- 
mies. That  is  evidenced  by  all  the  new  de- 
fense works  of  that  kingdom.     The  marine 

60 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY. 

fortresses  of  Copenhagen  are  being  increased 
and  strengthened  principally  for  closing  the 
Channel  (primarily  the  Drogden)  in  a  south- 
erly direction,  thus  toward  German  waters. 
The  land  fortress  which  would  chiefly  be  em- 
ployed against  an  attack  from  the  North  is 
being  neglected  and  will  probably  be  entirely 
abandoned.  But  still  more  important  are  the 
new  defenses  of  the  Great  Belt. 

Flanking  this  is  a  broad  bay  between  the 
Islands  of  Seeland,  Falster,  Laaland  and 
Langeland,  the  outlets  of  which  are  all  closed 
by  forts,  so  that  it  resembles  a  fox's  earth.  It 
offers  innumerable  hiding  places  on  the  broken 
coasts  of  the  Islands  which  enable  a  sudden 
pounce  not  only  on  the  bay  of  Kiel  and  the 
Fehmarn  Belt  but  also  on  the  outlet  of  Oere 
Sound,  and  is  extraordinarily  difficult  to  at- 
tack. It  was  quite  superfluous  for  the  Min- 
ister Neergard  to  announce  the  object  of  this 
fortified  bay  as  follows:  "The  means  of  com- 
munication by  several  routes  with  the  theater 

61 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

of  war  at  sea,  thereby  making  it  possible  to 
attack  the  enemy's  fleet." 

So  if,  on  the  one  hand,  Belgimn  is  selected 
as  a  means  to  enable  the  British  invading  force 
to  join  in  a  war  with  unlimited  aims  in  its  first 
proceeding,  Denmark  is  given  the  part  in  the 
second  proceeding,  the  war  of  limited  scope, 
of  (in  our  case)  furnishing  strong  support  in 
an  assault  on  German  harbors  and  the  destruc- 
tion of  our  fleet  and  providing  a  base  for  the 
employment  of  the  land  forces.^ 

With  the  exception  of  small  unimportant 
operations  of  the  British  Navy,  Great  Britain 
would,  according  to  Corbett,  hand  over  to  her 
allies  the  task  of  keeping  the  German  land 
forces  so  employed  that  only  weak  detach- 
ments thereof  could  be  sent  to  combat  the 
English  operations,  whereas  the  latter's  sole 
object  would  be  the  annihilation  of  our  fleet, 

2  It  should  be  remembered  that  the  nearest  British  harbor, 
Yarmouth,  is  nearly  three  and  a  half  times  as  far  from  the 
mouth  of  the  Elbe  as  Esbjerg,  which  therefore  offers  a  fav- 
orable point  d'appui  to  the  English  fleet. 

62 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

and  for  this  purpose  the  landing  force  would 
only  have  to  deal  with  inferior  forces. 

Now  the  question  comes  whether  England's 
allies  are  quite  agreeable  to  such  a  division  of 
labor  and  the  limitation  of  the  British  forces 
to  this  narrow  sphere.  According  to  the  opin- 
ions of  an  anonymous  French  officer  of  the 
General  Staff,  this  is  very  doubtful.  He  ex- 
presses himself  on  the  principal  points  as 
follows  ^ : — 

1.  Object  of  landing.  "As  far  as  the  stra- 
tegic point  of  view  is  concerned  this  will 
depend  on  the  general  military  situation.  It 
may  be  necessary  to  hasten  to  the  assistance 
of  the  French  against  the  German  troops  in- 
vading France,  or  to  help  the  Russians,  who 
may  be  pressed  by  the  Germans  and  Austrians 
on  the  Weichsel  and  the  Dniester." 

"A  feeling  of  uneasiness  will  be  awakened; 
the  people  will  become  unruly;  the  soldiers 

3  Die  Englische  Invasion  in  DeutscMand,  von  einem  f  ranzosi- 
schen  General-stabs-offizier.    Published  by  Politik,  Berlin,  1912. 

63 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

perhaps  defeated.  .  ,  ,  All  that  gradually  cre- 
ates a  breach  in  the  self-reliance  of  all  con- 
cerned. .  .  .  Other  allies  may  appear  on  the 
scene,  Danes  or  Dutch  according  to  circum- 
Stances.  •  •  • 

2.  Place  of  landing.  In  short — anywhere. 
The  author  favors  the  Ems  and  the  mouth  of 
the  Weichsel ;  but  he  also  considers  other  spots 
on  the  Baltic  coast  (Danish  territory)  suit- 
able. 

3.  Method  of  landing.  Deception  as  to  the 
intended  spot,  and  surprise. 

Of  course  these  opinions  as  to  the  employ- 
ment of  the  British  landing  force  are  not  to 
be  regarded  as  applicable  to  the  management 
of  the  French  forces.  At  the  same  time  they 
give  an  idea  of  the  wishes  entertained  in  gen- 
eral staff  circles  of  our  neighbor  on  the  West 
and  expressed  to  their  British  ally ;  they  would 
like  to  consider  the  English  expeditionary 
force  as  a  purely  auxiliary  force,  as  reenforce- 
ments,  not  to  operate  independently  according 

e4i 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

to  a  plan  determined  by  the  English  Com- 
mander-in-Chief, but  only  placed  ready  to  step 
in  and  help  where  the  progress  of  war  makes 
it  desirable,  and  pull  this  or  the  other  ally  out 
of  a  difficulty,  whether  it  be  the  French  in  their 
own  country  or  the  Russians  on  the  Weichsel 
or  Dniester,  It  is  to  be  assumed  that  the 
English  fleet  will  be  able  to  deal  with  the  Ger- 
man even  without  any  support  of  land  forces. 
The  Allies  do  not  trouble  at  all  about  the  com- 
plete annihilation  of  the  latter's  fleet.  This 
point  of  view  cropped  up  on  one  occasion  in 
connection  with  the  pledge  given  by  the  Eng- 
lish Government  to  France  to  send  an  auxil- 
iary force  in  case  of  war  with  Germany.  It 
was  only  conceived  as  being  auxiliary  to  the 
French  army,  and  there  was  no  question  of 
its  independent  employment  for  special  pur- 
poses in  England's  interests.  It  seemed  to  be 
the  opinion  in  France  that  Great  Britain 
would  quite  unselfishly  devote  her  forces  to  the 
interests  of  France.     This  is,  of  course,  quite 

65 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

out  of  the  question,  as  this  State  (England) 
has  never  subordinated  her  own  interests  to 
those  of  other  states  or  nations,  but  on  the  con- 
trary has,  in  many  instances,  made  their  forces 
serve  her  own  ends  and  interests. 

Therefore  a  great  diversity  of  interests,  evi- 
denced by  their  divergent  wishes,  appears  to 
arise  between  England  and  her  allies;  Great 
Britain  desires  to  annihilate  our  navy  whilst 
if  possible  sparing  our  army ;  France  and  Rus- 
sia would  like  to  destroy  the  German  Army 
and  preserve  the  Navy  as  a  counter  to  be  sub- 
sequently employed  against  the  increasing 
predominance  of  England.  It  is  interesting 
to  observe  from  the  opinions  of  the  French 
ofScer  that  they  confidently  rely  on  the  assist- 
ance of  Denmark,  and  even  of  the  Nether- 
lands, but  are  discreetly  silent  about  Belgium. 

If  the  cooperation  of  the  neutral  states  is 
not  opportunely  secured  before  the  commence- 
ment of  the  war  it  is  to  be  attained  by  the 
appearance  of  English  troops  on  the  German 

66 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

coast,  which  may  have  a  disastrous  effect  on 
the  morale  of  our  own  troops,  although,  ac- 
cording to  the  author,  the  army  of  invasion  on 
the  coast  would  soon  be  stopped  by  the  Ger- 
mans and  would  then  be  relegated  to  the  de- 
fensive. But  it  is  not  likely  that  England  will 
agree  to  her  landing  force  being  paralyzed  in 
this  manner. 

The  extraordinary  preparations  of  both  her 
allies  were  apparently  designed  to  make  Eng- 
land stiff-necked.  If  her  design  is  to  destroy 
the  German  Navy  in  any  circumstances;  if, 
according  to  Corbett's  opinion,  she  is  going  to 
entrust  to  her  expeditionary  force  a  limited 
sphere  of  war  and  drive  our  fleet,  if  it  with- 
draws into  harbor,  out  under  the  fire  of  her 
battleships'  guns,  she  cannot  believe  that  the 
war  will  soon  be  terminated,  as  these  opera- 
tions will  require  time,  much  time. 

But  if  superior  French  and  Russian  forces 
simultaneously  invading  Germany  on  both 
sides  succeed  (and  this  is  what  the  abnormal 

67 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

preparations  are  for)  in  crushing  our  army  by 
a  few  heavy  blows,  then  England  might  not 
have  sufficient  time  for  her  long-winded  opera- 
tions (investment  of  and  capture  of  the  har- 
bors), and  this  is  quite  apart,  as  we  just  said, 
from  the  consideration  that  she  has  no  interest 
in  the  complete  destruction  of  the  German 
land  forces.  Perhaps  that  is  why  England  is 
at  present  more  amiably  inclined  toward  us. 
Perhaps  also  the  reflection  is  gaining  ground 
that  an  attack  on  and  destruction  of  our  navy 
and  commercial  marine  might  not  be  carried 
out  without  sorrow  and  loss  to  her  own  coun- 
try. Germany  is  Great  Britain's  best  cus- 
tomer, and  in  many  respects  the  latter  relies  on 
our  industry.  Great  Britain  has  more  trading 
ships  on  the  sea  than  we  have,  and  they  are  no 
less  exposed  to  destruction  by  our  cruisers 
than  ours  by  the  English. 

Complete  protection  to  English  trading  ves- 
sels on  distant  seas  cannot  be  assured  by  their 
navy  if  they  have  to  maintain  in  European 

68 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

waters  the  highest  possible   superiority  over 
our  fleet. 

Finally,  the  Island  Kingdom  is  to  such  a 
large  extent  dependent  on  the  regular  import 
of  necessities  of  life,  that  a  blockade  would 
very  quickly  bring  about  a  famine,  coupled 
probably  with  very  grave  dangers.  This  is 
opportunely  evidenced  by  the  dockers'  strike, 
which  actually  threatened  the  population  of 
the  capital  with  famine  by  depriving  it  of  the 
imports  which  were  in  the  docks.  England 
has  therefore  to  stomach  these  disadvantages 
against  the  advantages  of  her  protected  situ- 
ation as  regards  invasion.  So  long  as  the 
Island  Empire  was  actually  mistress  of  the 
sea  such  conditions  could  not  arise,  and  she 
could  indulge  in  the  luxury  of  neglecting  her 
own  agricultural  production  and  devote  all 
her  energies  to  her  industries,  feeding  herself 
from  abroad.  But  those  times  are  gone  for- 
ever. England  cannot  conceal  from  herself 
that  she  must  even  now  share  the  command 

G9 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

of  the  sea  with  other  nations,  and  the  de- 
struction of  our  navy  would  not  avail  her,  as 
navies  are  springing  up  in  all  directions  and 
even  wealthy  Albion  cannot  continue  to  keep 
pace  with  the  universal  struggle  for  sea  power. 
The  less  so  as  it  is  not  only  a  question  of  the 
great  expense  but  also  in  a  very  important 
degree  of  the  manning  of  powerful  battleships 
which  are  continually  being  added  to  and 
which  are  absolutely  useless  without  very 
strong  complements.  We  have  lately  been 
informed  by  Secretary  of  State  von  Tirpitz, 
that  England's  naval  expenditure  in  the  last 
five  years  has  risen  216  millions  but  Ger- 
many's only  55  millions  (marks  or  shillings) ; 
and  that  our  expenditure  is  far  less  not  only 
than  England's  but  also  than  that  of  her  two 
allies;  France's  increase  being  134,  and  Rus- 
sia's for  the  Baltic  fleet  alone  nearly  302  mil- 
lions. That  may  cause  Britain  to  think  a  bit. 
But  with  regard  to  the  second  point,  the 
personnel,  it  is  an  open  secret  how  difficult  it 

70 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

is  even  on  a  moderate  increase  of  a  navy  to 
provide  in  good  time  and  train  correspond- 
ingly increasing  crews,  and  not  only  sailors 
but  particularly  engineers  and  officers.     The 
difficulty  which  Great  Britain  in  particular  ex- 
periences in  this  respect  is  no  secret.     It  is 
asserted — and  it  can  hardly  be  a  mistake — that 
Mr.  Churchill  suggested  a  year's  holiday  in 
naval  construction  to   Germany  in  order  to 
make  up  the  deficiency  in  the  personnel  of 
the  fleet.     A  crafty  move,  as  England  could 
amply  employ  her  dockyards  by  building  for 
other  Powers,  and  would  not  even  be  obliged 
to  go  short,  as  in  case  of  need  she  could  im- 
press into  her  own  navy  the  foreign  ships  lying 
in  her  yards.     But  the  stupid  Michael  did  not 
enter  the  trap — simply  because  he   did  not 
know  how  otherwise  to  employ  his  dockyard 
hands  during  a  whole  year.     The  proposal, 
however,  did  contribute  to  make  our  Chamber 
of  Deputies    (Reichstag) — let  us  say — more 
careful — as  the  word  "suspicious"  is  at  present 

71 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

barred — in  bewaring  of  our  cousins  on  the 
other  side  of  the  Channel.  And  it  will  not 
be  beside  the  purpose  to  remember  that  in 
1870  England  at  the  request  of  France  made 
confidential  inquiries  of  the  Prussian  Govern- 
ment whether  the  latter  would  not  sanction 
a  decrease  in  the  Army,  to  be  simultaneously 
effected  by  each  State  in  the  interests  of  the 
peace  of  Europe. 

This  happened  almost  immediately  before 
the  outbreak  of  war  with  France,  on  whose 
share  in  originating  it  I  need  not  enlarge.^ 

To  be  sure  England  has  at  present  every 
reason  for  not  seeking  war  with  Germany 
without  cause.  It  is  said  that  the  relations  of 
the  two  States  are  happily  developing  on  the 
lines  of  an  understanding  and  rapprochement; 
it  is  becoming  acknowledged  that  they  can 
work  with  and  alongside  each  other  on  many 
points  and  questions,  that  their  interests  are 

identical  in  many  respects.     And  as  you  call 

4  See  Bismarck's  letter  of  9-2-1870. 

7a 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

into  a  wood  so  a  conciliatory  echo  replies. 
But  it  must  not  be  forgotten  that  it  was 
England  that  brought  about  this  menacing 
coalition,  w^hich  is  at  bottom  unquestionably 
unnatural,  because  it  has  no  common  interests, 
and  it  was  England  that  exerted  herself  to 
estrange  us  from  our  few  remaining  friends. 
It  can  hardly  be  believed  that  our  blood 
relationship  carries  the  slightest  weight  with 
England,  and  that  she  would  refrain  from  at- 
tack because  we  have  never  yet  crossed  swords 
with  each  other.  Why  should  England  have 
ever  had  the  idea  of  fighting  us,  as  long  as  we 
had  not  the  audacity  to  build  a  fleet  in  order 
to  shield  our  coasts  and  our  great  and  increas- 
ing trade?  It  was  that — just  that — which 
completely  altered  our  relations.  If,  there- 
fore. Great  Britain  has  reasons  for  not  pro- 
ceeding rashly  and  is  carefully  restraining 
herself,  we  must  nevertheless  not  conceal  from 
ourselves  that  she  will  seize  every  favorable 
opportunity  of  attacking  us  unawares  and  de- 

73 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

livering  her  declaration  of  war  with  the  first 
shells  at  our  coast  resorts.  Even  if  she  is  in 
favor  of  peace  her  allies  will  presumably  not 
be  inclined  to  perpetually  burden  themselves 
for  nothing  with  an  armament  which  cannot 
be  long  supported,  especially  by  France.  If 
she  thinks  the  proper  moment  has  arrived, 
England  will  not  hang  back. 


74 


II 

RUSSIA'S  PREPARATION  FOR  WAR 
WITH  GERMANY  AND  AUSTRIA 

GERMANY   AND   AUSTRIA   STAND   IN   THE  WAY 
OF   RUSSIAN   EXPANSION 

Our  eastern  neighbor  has  really  no  cause  for 
a  grudge  against  Germany.  Although  the 
latter's  conduct  at  the  Berlin  Congress  of  1878 
has  always  been  regarded  in  Russia  as  disloyal 
and  has  given  rise  to  bad  feeling,  we  on  our 
part  are  fully  justified  in  recalling  past  events 
which  Prince  Bismarck  set  out  in  his  Thoughts 
and  Recollections,^  from  which  I  will  therefore 
quote  at  length. 

On  Russia  demanding  whether  Germany 
would  remain  neutral  if  the  former  went  to  war 
with  Austria,  Bismarck  being  pressed  for  a 

1  Geda/nken  und  EriTmertmgmi,  Vol.  II,  page  214, 

75 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

definite  answer  replied  to  the  Ambassador: 
**Our  first  requirement  is  to  maintain  friend- 
ship between  the  great  monarchies,  which  in 
case  of  revolution  had  more  to  lose  than  they 
would  gain  in  fighting  amongst  themselves. 
If,  to  our  chagrin,  this  is  not  possible  as  be- 
tween Russia  and  Austria,  then  we  could  very 
well  sit  still  and  see  our  friends  losing  or  win- 
ning battles  against  each  other,  but  not  that 
one  of  them  should  be  so  badly  wounded  and 
damaged  that  its  position  as  an  independent 
and  great  Power  in  the  Councils  of  Europe 
would  be  endangered."  On  that  the  Russian 
thunder  was  deflected  from  Galicia  toward  the 
Balkans,  and  Russia,  at  the  treaty  of  Reich- 
stadt,  bought  Austria's  neutrality  at  the  cost 
of  Bosnia  and  Herzegovina. 

"Even  after  the  Berlin  Congress  the  posi- 
tion of  Russia  remained  one  of  the  most,  if  not 
the  most,  favorable,  which  she  at  any  time  pos- 
sessed after  the  Turkish  War";^  but  "Russia, 

2  II,  page  106. 

76 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

contrary  to  all  truth  and  sense,  gave  way  to 
exasperation  at  the  result  of  the  Berlin  Con- 
gress. This  arose  in  consequence  of  the  utter- 
ances of  the  Russian  Press,  which,  at  any  rate 
with  regard  to  foreign  matters,  is  so  little 
understood  by  the  people,  and  the  pressure 
brought  to  bear.  The  whole  influence  of 
Gortschakow  .  .  .  was  strong  enough  to  pro- 
duce in  the  Press,  with  Wedomosti  of  Moscow 
at  its  head,  a  semblance  of  irritation  at  the 
damage  which  Russia  had  suffered  at  the  Ber- 
lin Congress  as  a  result  of  Germany's  perfidy. 
Now  no  desire  of  Russia  was  expressed  at  the 
Berlin  Congress  of  which  Germany  might  not 
have  procured  acceptance,  if  necessary,  by 
means  of  energetic  representations  to  Eng- 
land's Prime  Minister.  .  ,  .  Instead  of  being 
grateful  for  this  it  seemed  to  answer  Russia's 
policy,  under  the  guidance  of  .  .  .  Prince 
Gortschakow  and  the  Moscow  papers,  to  con- 
tinue to  bring  about  the  further  estrangement 
of  Russia  and  Germany,  for  which  there  was 

77 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

not  the  slightest  need  in  the  interests  of  either 
of  them.  We  do  not  envy  each  other  and  we 
cannot  get  anything  from  one  another  which 
would  be  of  use  to  us."  ^ 

"During  the  diplomatic  negotiations  with 
regard  to  the  execution  of  the  decisions  of  the 
Berlin  Congress  it  was  expected  in  St.  Peters- 
burg that  we  would  as  a  matter  of  course  and 
without  any  previous  understanding  between 
Berlin  and  St.  Petersburg  carry  out  every 
Russian  interpretation  as  opposed  to  the 
Anglo- Austrian.  The  request  which  I  hinted 
at  and  finally  expressed,  that  Russia  should 
confidentially  but  clearly  communicate  her 
wishes  to  us,  was  evaded,  and  I  received  the 
impression  that  Prince  Gortschakow  expected 
me,  like  a  lady  her  admirer,  to  guess  and  rep- 
resent the  wishes  of  Russia  without  the  latter 
iterating  them  and  taking  responsibility  there- 
for. Even  in  cases  where  we  could  be  pre- 
sumed to  be  fully  acquainted  with  Russia's 

sll,  page  108. 

78 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

interests  and  views,  and  we  desired  to  volun- 
tarily give  her  evidence  of  our  friendship,  so 
long  as  this  was  not  to  our  detriment,  we  ex- 
perienced, in  place  of  the  recognition  we 
expected,  a  grumbling  disapproval  because  we 
did  not  obtain  what  was  expected  by  our  Rus- 
sian friends.  Even  when  we  did  so  we  had 
no  better  success.  The  whole  of  this  proceed- 
ing showed  a  calculated  dishonesty  not  only 
toward  ourselves  but  also  to  the  Emperor 
Alexander,  to  whom  German  policy  was  made 
to  appear  as  dishonorable  and  unreliable."  * 

*'It  is  well  known  that  in  consequence  of 
these  intrigues  the  Emperor  Alexander  was 
induced  to  write  a  letter  in  his  own  hand  to  the 
Emperor  William,  the  contents  of  which  were 
somewhat  as  follows :  'If  Germany  continues 
to  refuse  to  accommodate  itself  to  the  voice  of 
Russia,  peace  cannot  be  maintained  between 
us.' "  ^ 

As  long  ago  as  1879  it  was  due  only  to  the 

4  II,  pages  217-218.  5  n,  page  219. 

79 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

wisdom  and  amiability  of  our  aged  Emperor 
that  Gortschakow's  coquetting  with  France 
did  not  lead  to  war  between  Germany  and 
Russia.  But  perhaps  the  French  did  not 
consider  the  moment  opportune,  as  may  be 
gathered  from  the  Russian  Prince's  words: 
"J'aurais  voulu  faire  la  guerre,  mais  la  France 
a  d'autres  intentions."  ^ 

There  is  no  doubt  that  the  complaints  about 
our  behavior  at  the  Berlin  Congress  were  only 
pretexts,  the  want  of  justification  for  which 
has  long  been  recognized  by  Russian  diploma- 
tists; but  they  form  a  convenient  means  of 
agitation  and  for  that  reason  are  always  dug 
up  again.  The  political  motives  which  jeop- 
ardized Germany's  friendship  lay  in  another 
direction.  We  shall  recognize  them  in  follow- 
ing Russia's  exertions  for  expansion. 

Homer  Lea  is  our  guide.  From  the  com- 
mencement of  the  eighteenth  century  Russia 
began  to  steer  her  extending  movements  in 

6  II,  page  319. 

so 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

definite  directions  of  which  the  indispensable 
possession  of  sea  coasts  was  the  first  consid- 
eration. However  far  the  Empire  might  ex- 
tend from  the  Dnieper  to  Behring  Straits  and 
from  the  Arctic  Ocean  to  the  northwest  shore 
of  the  Caspian,  this  did  not  enable  communi- 
cation with  the  sea,  as  the  northern  coasts  are 
ice-bound  and  the  Caspian  has  no  outlet.  On 
the  northwest  it  was  necessary  to  acquire  the 
Baltic  Sea  by  pressing  Sweden.  On  the  west 
to  wrest  Little  and  White  Russia  from  the 
Poles.  On  the  so^th  they  directed  their  gaze 
on  the  Black  Sea;  on  the  southeast  the  Cas- 
pian and  the  Caucasus  had  to  be  secured,  and 
they  fixed  their  eyes  upon  the  road  through 
Turkestan  to  India.  On  the  east  it  was  a  mat- 
ter of  acquiring  hospitable  stretches  of  coast 
on  the  Pacific. 

Russia  spared  no  sacrifice  of  time  and  men 
to  attain  these  ends  and  did  not  allow  herself 
to  be  deterred  by  any  reverses,  however  costly, 
from  again  traversing  the  same  road,  so  as  by 

81 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

constant  endeavor  to  achieve  success,  *'Rus- 
sia  in  the  course  of  her  progress  troubles  her- 
self as  little  about  her  losses  in  war  as  the 
Russian  nature  about  the  wildernesses  created 
by  her  winter.  In  the  eighteenth  century  this 
Empire  put  4,910,000  troops  into  the  field;  of 
these  1,380,000  survived.  In  the  nineteenth 
century  the  total  number  of  troops  on  active 
service  came  to  4,900,000  and  the  losses  to 
1,410,000,  and  yet  at  the  commencement  of  the 
eighteenth  century  Russia's  population  only 
amounted  to  12,000,000,  and  at  the  com- 
mencement of  the  nineteenth  century  to 
38,000,000.  .  .  . 

The  courage  and  determination  exhibited  in 
every  Russian  scheme  of  expansion  during  the 
seventeenth  century  and  for  two  hundred 
years  prove  that  Russia  would  never  volun- 
tarily abandon  them.  Hitherto  these  Rus- 
sians have  never  jibbed,  never  hesitated. 
Without  haste,  and  even  after  a  reverse  ever 
full  of  hope,  sober  after  victory,  never  casting 

8g 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

a  glance  at  the  ground  which  their  battles  have 
heaped  with  corpses,  and  their  eyes  firmly 
fixed  on  that  distant  but  definite  goal  on  which 
they  were  first  directed."  "^ 

We  have  only  to  follow  the  expansion  to- 
ward the  northwest,  west  and  south.  On  the 
west,  after  the  destruction  of  the  Kingdom  of 
Poland,  Russia  pressed  forward  as  far  as  the 
Pruth  and  across  the  Weichsel,  in  the  north- 
west she  acquired  the  Baltic  Provinces,  and 
squeezed  Sweden  out  of  Finland,  in  the  south 
she  became  mistress  of  the  whole  of  the  Black 
Sea  coast  from  the  mouth  of  the  Danube  to 
the  Caucasus.  But  even  then  her  goal  was 
not  reached.  The  Baltic  is  only  connected 
with  the  ocean  by  narrow  and  dangerous  chan- 
nels and  these  Straits  can  with  no  great  difii- 
culty  be  completely  closed.  The  outlet  from 
the  Black  Sea  through  the  Bosphorus  and 
Hellespont  (Dardanelles),  is  closed  to  the 
Russian  fleet  by  Constantinople  and  various 

7  H.  Lea,  pages  130-31. 

8$ 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

treaties.  In  both  directions  Russia,  it  is  true, 
has  approached  substantially  nearer  her  ob- 
ject, but  it  is  no  longer  small  weak  nations  but 
Great  Powers  which  bar  her  victorious  path. 

The  Russo- Turkish  wars  of  the  last  century, 
although  conducted  ostensibly  for  freeing  the 
Christian  Balkan  States  from  the  Turkish 
yoke,  were  really  purposed  to  bring  them  un- 
der the  influence  and  suzerainty  of  Tsardom 
and  to  open  the  road  to  Constantinople.  This 
aflfected  Austria's  interests  in  her  most  sensi- 
tive part  as  her  entire  trade  to  the  East  would 
have  been  jeopardized,  and  is  the  reason  for 
the  hostility  of  Russia  and  Austria,  which  must 
.develop  on  every  occasion  when  the  question 
of  the  Balkan  States  arises. 

This  became  apparent  in  the  last  Balkan 
War  wherein  Russia  played  the  role  of  *'Spir- 
itus  rector,"  and  only  refrained  from  declar- 
ing war,  for  which  she  was  quite  ready,  on 
Austria,  because  her  ally,  France — just  as  in 
1879 — did    not    consider    herself    sufficiently 

8^ 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

armed  to  successfully  interfere.  For  behind 
her  allies  lay  the  German  Empire,  and  Italy 
also  became  more  firmly  bound  to  her  allies 
through  the  jeopardy  of  her  considerably  ex- 
tended interests  in  the  Mediterranean. 

Russia  perceives  that  she  will  never  attain 
her  ends  in  the  Balkans  without  a  victorious 
struggle  not  only  with  Austria  but  also  with 
Germany.  That  binds  her  close  to  France,  of 
whose  support  she  is  secure  in  all  events  if 
there  is  any  chance  of  the  Triple  Alliance 
winning  the  mastery.  Therefore  it  is  not  any 
interests  of  Russia  directly  conflicting  with 
those  of  Germany  which  form  the  ground  for 
their  recent  strong  feeling  against  us  but  the 
opposition  offered  out  of  self-preservation  by 
our  allies  to  Russian  endeavor  in  the  Balkans, 
and  the  strenuous  fidelity  of  the  German  Em- 
pire to  its  alliances. 

In  the  northwest,  Russia  has  advanced  to 
the  Torne-elf.  An  interval  of  only  150  kilo- 
meters (93  miles)  separates  her  most  advanced 

S5 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

post  from  the  coveted  ocean  harbor,  Narvik, 
in  the  innermost  bay  of  the  Best  Fiord;  and  it 
is  only  a  country  with  five  and  a  half  millions 
of  inhabitants  which  blocks  her  way.  All 
preparations  to  fall  upon  the  latter  have  been 
gradually  made  for  ages;  a  railway  was  built 
up  to  the  frontier  river  with  its  terminus  at 
Tornea.  But  being  a  coast  railway  it  is  easily 
threatened  by  an  enemy  commanding  the  sea. 
Accordingly  a  second  railway  through  the  sea- 
board of  Finland  was  completed  up  to  within 
400  kilometers  (248  miles)  of  the  frontier,  and 
a  third  line  is  contemplated  in  an  easterly  di- 
rection. 

Great  exertions  are  being  made  to  Russian- 
ize Finland  and  troops  have  been  despatched 
to  northern  garrisons.  In  short,  we  cannot 
avoid  the  impression  that  Russia  is  making 
great  preparations  to  hurl  a  mighty  blow  at 
Sweden's  resistance  and  to  hew  out  a  path  to 
Narvik  on  the  Atlantic  coast.  But  also  in  this 
respect  Germany's  opposition  must  be  reckoned 

86 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

with.  The  Swedes  are  well  aware  of  the  dan- 
ger that  threatens  them.  With  the  object  of 
quickly  despatching  troops  to  the  very  thinly 
populated  and  most  unfavorably  situated 
northerly  province  of  Norbotten  and  victual- 
ling them  there,  they  have  built  a  railway  to 
the  Torne-elf,  and  as  a  point  of  support  have 
equipped  a  ring  of  fortresses  on  the  Lule-elf, 
Boden,  100  kilometers  from  the  frontier  river, 
with  all  the  resources  of  the  science  of  fortifi- 
cation. Thus,  breaking  tlu'ough  to  the  coast 
will  not  be  so  easy. 

The  whole  population  has  however  been 
greatly  excited  by  the  threatened  danger,  and 
judging  by  the  procession  of  33,000  peasants 
to  Stockholm,  is  ready  and  willing  to  offer  up 
life  and  property  in  defense  of  their  father- 
land. At  the  same  time  many  a  longing 
glance  is  directed  to  Germany,  the  mighty 
people  that  springs  from  the  same  stock  and 
whose  armies  would  provide  a  powerful  bul- 
wark   for   the   hard-pressed   little    kingdom. 

87 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

Therefore  it  is  not  out  of  the  reckoning  that 
the  threatening  Russian  danger  may  bring 
about  a  closer  union  between  these  two  sympa- 
thetic nations  with  which  Russia  will  have  to 
reckon,  and  that  is  again  an  intelligible  reason 
for  her  ill  feeling  toward  Germany. 

Russia  has  to  thank  us  for  a  great  deal.  If 
it  had  not  been  for  the  great  immigration  from 
our  country  the  development  of  her  culture 
would  be  much  less  advanced  than  it  actually 
is.  It  is  not  too  much  to  say  that  everything 
that  has  been  done  in  Russia  in  the  way  of  in- 
dustrial establishments  has  been  effected  prin- 
cipally under  German  management,  and  that 
even  as  regards  the  chief  Government  ap- 
pointments the  most  important  work  is  in  the 
hands  of  descendants  of  Germans,  even  though 
they  be  actually  Russianized. 

Their  best  officers  are  mostly  of  German 
descent  even  if  they  have,  as  true  Germans, 
devoted  their  services  whole-heartedly  to  the 
state  and  have  developed  into  the  most  loyal 

88 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

and,  as  distinguished  from  most  inborn  Rus- 
sians, devoted  Russian  subjects.  The  Rus- 
sians have  never  been  grateful  for  the 
obligations  which  Germany  has  laid  upon  Rus- 
sia by  the  introduction  of  intellectual  qualities 
and  cultural  development.  On  the  contrary 
they  have  betrayed  jealousy,  envy  and  hate, 
and  have  done  all  they  can  on  occasion  to  per- 
secute the  Germans  and  forcibly  drive  them 
out  of  the  country. 

The  Slavs,  as  appears  not  only  in  Russia 
but  also  to  an  equal  extent  in  the  Slavonic 
provinces  of  Austria-Hungary  and  the  Balkan 
Peninsula,  possess  a  deep  inborn  hatred  of 
Germany.  That  territory  offers  an  all  too  fa- 
vorable soil  for  the  germs  of  mistrust  which 
France  uninterruptedly  endeavors  to  spread, 
and  the  amicable  relations  between  the  two 
countries  which  Gortschakow  in  his  time  would 
have  entangled  but  for  Bismarck's  acute  and 
skilful  handling,  terminated  after  the  Balkan 
war  ended  so  little  in  favor  of  Russia's  aims. 

89 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

It  cannot  be  denied  that  the  bad  feelings 
subsisting  between  the  Balkan  Allies,  the  Bul- 
garians and  the  Servians,  have  given  Russian 
statesmen  much  trouble  although,  on  the  other 
hand,  the  fact  that  there  is  no  statesman  in  the 
Balkans  of  great  determination  and  power 
capable  of  withdrawing  them,  like  Roumania, 
away  from  Russian  suzerainty,  has  contrib- 
uted considerably  to  this  state  of  affairs. 
Roumania  has  bitterly  felt  Russia's  ingrati- 
tude for  her  unselfish  assistance  in  the  war  of 
1877;  but  Bulgaria  and  Servia  have  already 
suffered  so  much  from  the  unreliability  and 
infidelity  of  the  Tsar's  Empire  that  it  is  aston- 
ishing to  see  them  always  bowing  to  the  old 
yoke  and  following  the  seductive  voice  of  St. 
Petersburg. 

It  is  only  a  short  time  since  Servia,  relying 
on  the  pledged  assistance  of  Russia,  without 
cause  sought  a  conflict  with  Austria-Hungary 
and  endeavored  to  persist  in  it  with  astonish- 
ing stubbornness  until  she  saw  that  she  could 

90 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

not  expect  any  help  from  Russia.  Was  not 
Bulgaria  placed  in  an  extremely  critical  posi- 
tion in  1885  when  the  Tsar,  on  the  outbreak 
of  the  Bulgaro- Servian  war,  recalled  various 
Russian  officers  who  had  accepted  important 
positions  in  the  Bulgarian  Army?  Were  they 
not  again  left  in  the  lurch  last  year  when  they 
relied  on  Russia's  promise  to  prevent  Rou- 
mania  entering  the  ring,  and  instead  Rou- 
mania  was,  to  a  certain  extent,  requested  to 
interfere  in  the  interests  of  peace  just  as  Bul- 
garia was  being  pressed  on  all  sides  by  Servia, 
Greece,  and  Turkey. 

Who  is  in  a  position  to  judge  what  develop- 
ments will  ensue  from  the  hurly-burly  in  the 
Balkan  Peninsula;  whether  Bulgaria,  owing 
to  its  experiences,  will  ally  itself  with  Turkey, 
whether  Roumania  will  join  Greece,  and  what 
part  Servia,  always  a  time  server,  will  play? 
Two  things  may  be  reckoned  on :  a  sanguinary 
and,  owing  to  the  second  Balkan  war,  much 
inflamed  hatred  by  Bulgaria  against  Servia 

91 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

and  Greece  and — Russia's  not  easily  discour- 
aged anxiety  to  again  try  the  political  game 
in  the  Balkans  which  came  to  such  a  sudden 
end  on  the  dissolution  of  the  Balkan  League 
established  under  her  segis.  The  deliberations 
of  leading  statesmen  in  the  Balkan  States,  who 
happened  "by  chance"  to  meet  in  the  Russian 
capital,  could  have  had  no  other  object  than  to 
forward  Russian  influence  in  order  to  oppose 
Austria's  interests,  and  to  arouse  in  the  Bal- 
kans against  Germany's  ally  an  enemy  who 
would  fasten  on  her  heels  as  soon  as  she  en- 
deavored to  defend  herself  against  the  Russian 
onslaught,  or  hasten  to  the  assistance  of  her 
ally. 

It  must  be  acknowledged  that  Russia's  ex- 
ertions to  expand  meet  with  ever-increasing 
and  more  insurmountable  obstacles  the  more 
they  conflict  with  the  interests  of  European 
Powers,  and  that  in  face  of  this  opposition 
Russia  herself  requires  to  consolidate  her  re- 

92 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

sources,  as  a  counterbalance.  Every  one  be- 
lieved that  the  progress  of  mtemal  develop- 
ment of  the  land  and  state  would  be  delayed 
by  the  heavy  blows  which  the  Russian  Empire 
sustained  in  East  Asia,  and  the  consequent 
unrest  and  demoralization  amongst  her  officers 
and  bureaucracy,  and  finally  through  bad  har- 
vests. The  greater  must  be  the  surprise  at 
Russia's  progress  in  every  direction  during 
recent  years. 

In  the  jSrst  place  an  agricultural  organiza- 
tion has  been  established  which  will  perhaps 
at  last  terminate  the  unhappy  state  of  the 
peasants.  We  are  told  that  toward  the  end 
of  1912  over  a  million  independent  socie- 
ties were  formed  by  means  of  which  the  peas- 
ant proprietors  were  enabled  to  free  them- 
selves entirely.  Next,  the  settlement  of  Si- 
beria was  so  energetically  undertaken  that 
from  1907  to  1912  no  less  than  2,400,000  per- 
sons of  both  sexes  were  settled  in  Siberia,  and 

93 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

it  is  hoped  that  within  a  few  years  the  whole 
of  the  arable  land  will  be  brought  under  the 
plow. 

The  settlement  of  Siberia  is  of  enormous 
military  importance,  as  in  this  way  it  will  be 
possible  to  base  the  defense  of  East  Asia  on 
the  land's  own  strength,  and  it  will  not  be 
necessary  as  heretofore  to  send  large  bodies 
of  troops  from  the  west  of  the  Empire  if  Rus- 
sia is  involved  in  a  war  with  Japan  or  China. 
They  are  already  in  a  position  to  reenforce 
the  present  seven  standing  army  corps  in  Si- 
beria with  a  reserve  of  at  least  285,000  men 
formed  of  the  inhabitants  themselves.  In  the 
same  way  as  the  development  of  their  agri- 
culture enabled  them  to  double  their  produc- 
tion between  1895  and  1911  (1,365,000,000 
roubles),  and  the  demand  for  agricultural  ma- 
chinery increased  to  the  amount  of  119,000,- 
000  roubles,  industrial  progress  showed  the 
same  surprising  advance;  and  in  spite  of  the 
constantly  increasing  number  the   establish- 

94i 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

merits  do  not  yet  satisfy  the  wants  of  the  pop- 
ulation. The  financial  conditions  of  the  State 
have  taken  a  remarkably  favorable  turn  since 
the  paper  currency  was  withdrawn  (after  the 
War  of  1877-78)  and  a  gold  currency  was 
established,  in  addition  to  which  the  Imperial 
Bank  has  been  reorganized.  They  even  suc- 
ceeded during  the  Japanese  War,  in  spite  of 
the  tremendous  war  expenditure  (3,600,000,- 
000  marks — £180,000,000),  in  so  preserving 
the  Bank  Reserve  that  in  October  1905  it 
amounted  to  2,500,000,000  marks  (£125,000,- 
000) .  But  Russia  is  clever  enough  not  to  ex- 
pend this  reserve  on  its  present  very  consider- 
able outgoings  for  its  army  and  defense,  but 
instead  makes  claims  on  its  ancient  banker, 
France.  In  that  way  secure  financial  condi- 
tions will  be  assured  for  the  contemplated  war. 
It  is  true  that  the  otherwise  loquacious  Rus- 
sian Press  is  silent  on  the  subject  that  com- 
plete preparations  on  the  highest  scale  are  be- 
ing made  for  such  a  war — and  this  is  a  most 

95 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

suspicious  sign — but  from  what  reaches  our 
ears  on  the  subject  we  ought  to  pay  the  great- 
est attention  to  them. 

In  all  Russia's  former  wars  want  of  a  well 
developed  net-work  of  routes — formerly  of 
marching  roads  and  in  the  last  century  of  rail- 
ways— has  been  a  hindrance  to  the  rapid  mo- 
bilization and  equipment  of  her  armies.  The 
greater  the  distances  of  the  troop  stations  from 
each  other  and  from  the  theater  of  war  in  their 
extraordinarily  extended  Empire,  the  more 
serious  was  this  circumstance  in  a  country 
which  is  still  to  a  large  extent  covered  by  con- 
siderable areas  of  swamp  and  forest.  For 
that  reason  the  accelerated  construction  of  the 
Siberian  Railway  had  to  precede  the  conflict 
with  Japan,  which  necessarily  followed  the  oc- 
cupation of  Manchuria,  and  even  during  the 
war  the  very  difficult  section  round  the  shores 
of  Lake  Baikal  had  to  be  completed.  Conse- 
quently a  large  portion  of  the  loan  of  two  mil- 
liard marks  from  France  must  be  employed  to 

96 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

rapidly  complete  the  net-work  of  railways,  so 
that  the  interior  of  the  Empire  may  be  linked 
with  the  German  and  Austro-Hungarian 
boundary. 

But  the  completion  of  these  lines  of  com- 
munication will  take  years,  and  therefore  they 
will  have  to  deal  with  the  pressure  of  the  allies 
in  another  manner.  There  are  two  means 
open ;  the  contraction  of  the  distance  to  be  cov- 
ered by  the  troops,  that  is  to  say,  to  the  west- 
ern boundary,  and  such  an  increase  in  the 
peace  strength  of  their  army  that  it  will  not 
be  necessary  to  complete  it  by  the  transport 
by  rail  of  an  abnormal  quantity  of  reserves. 
Russia  has  adopted  both  these  means.  Army 
corps  have  been  advanced  toward  the  frontier 
in  three  directions;  toward  the  east  against 
Japan  and  China  where  they  have  at  one 
stroke  been  increased  from  five  to  seven,  to- 
ward the  south-east  to  the  Caucasus  against 
Turkey,  toward  the  west  against  the  German 
and  Austro-Hungarian  frontier.     On  the  lat- 

97 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

ter  two  new  corps  have  been  formed,  and  no 
less  than  nineteen  new  cavahy  regiments. 

In  order  to  comply  with  the  demand  of 
France  that  they  should  not  limit  themselves 
to  the  defensive  but  should  immediately  com- 
mence with  an  advance,  it  was  considered  ad- 
visable to  increase  the  corps  to  be  employed  in 
the  first  line  to  such  a  peace-footing  that  the 
offensive  can  immediately  be  assumed  without 
waiting  for  the  inclusion  of  any  reserves. 
This  is  provided  for  by  the  extension  of  the 
period  of  service.  This  was  formerly  fixed  at 
three  years,  namely,  from  the  lst/14th  Janu- 
ary to  the  end  of  the  third  year  of  service. 
Nevertheless,  recruits  were  always  embodied 
in  the  previous  autumn  and  the  Minister  of 
War  used,  in  accordance  with  his  privilege,  to 
permit  discharges  in  November  of  the  third 
year  of  service.  He  had  also  the  power  under 
the  highest  authority  to  retain  the  reserves 
with  the  colors  even  after  the  period  of  service 
had  been  completed  if  there  were  sufficient  rea- 

98 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

son  therefor.  This  right,  which  was  exercised 
during  the  strained  relations  with  Austria  last 
year,  has  now  been  abandoned,  as  the  period 
of  service  is  prolonged  till  the  lst/14th  April 
of  what  is  now  the  fourth  year  of  service. 

What  will  be  the  result?  During  the  period 
of  training  recruits  there  will  be  three  full  an- 
nual drafts  of  trained  troops  with  the  colors 
in  the  infantry  and  four  in  the  cavalry,  and 
the  units  will  during  this  period,  which  is  the 
most  difficult  and  critical  for  every  army,  be  a 
full  quarter  stronger  and  just  as  efficient  as 
after  completion  of  the  period  of  training. 
The  difference,  as  regards  our  army,  which 
during  the  period  of  training  has  only  one 
complete  annual  draft  with  the  colors,  can  be 
seen  at  a  glance.  But  we  must  take  into  fur- 
ther consideration  that  in  case  of  an  outbreak 
of  war  in  the  spring,  instead  of  discharging 
the  reserves  they  would  be  able  to  keep  them 
back  so  as  to  have  at  their  disposal  forces  al- 
most on  a  war  footing.     Even  if  the  Russian 

99 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 


measures  do  not  go  as  far  as  the  transforma- 
tion of  the  French  organization,  yet  the  lat- 
ter's  wishes  are  being  taken  into  full  account. 
The  peace  footing  of  the  Russian  Army  is 
now  judged  to  be  as  follows: 

Of  which  there 
are  in  Europe 

1,322,000  troops 

1,017,000 

1,337,000 

1,032,000 

1,047,000 


Winter,  1913-4 
Summer,  1914 
Winter,   1914-5 
Summer,  1915 
Winter,  1915-6 


1,840,000 
1,415,000 
1,860,000 
1,435,000 
1,900,000 


a 


a 


66 


(6 


These  figures  provide  approximately  the  full 
strength  on  a  war  footing  during  the  winter 
months.  Assuming  that  Russia  should  in  gen- 
eral conform  to  the  plans  suggested  by  the 
French  General,  Cherfils,  then  there  will  be 
concentrated  on  our  eastern  frontier  and  pri- 
marily against  the  Provinces  of  East  and 
West  Prussia,  fourteen  or  fifteen  army  corps 
of  the  armies  of  Warsaw,  Wilna,  St.  Peters- 
burg, and  Kiev,  of  which  eight  are  stationed 

100 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

only  80  to  200  krldriieteirs    (49,6-124  miles) 
from  the  f rontiGi>.  •  -   :  . 

But  Russia  has  not  only  prepared  herself 
for  an  offensive  war  by  the  above-mentioned 
increase  and  readiness  of  her  army,  but  she 
has  also  paid  increased  attention  to  the  pro- 
tection of  her  country  by  the  extension  of  her 
fortifications.  A  representative  of  the  Min- 
istry of  War  declared  as  long  ago  as  last  June 
that  in  1912  not  only  had  the  then  fortresses 
been  improved  and  extended,  but  also  new 
ones  were  being  built.  The  Russians  are  link- 
ing their  system  of  defenses  on  their  western 
boundary  in  a  northerly  center  which  is  de- 
fended by  the  fortress  of  Kowno  and  the  forti- 
fied Niemen-line,  in  a  southern  center  toward 
Galicia  with  the  fortresses  of  Dubno,  Luzk 
and  Rowno,  and  an  advanced  position  the 
center  of  which  is  formed  by  the  triangular 
fortress  chain  of  Warsaw — Nowo  and  Geor- 
giewsk-Zegrze,  the  left  wing  of  which  is 
formed   by   Iwangorod   and   Brest   Litowsk. 

101 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

The  whole  circle  of  these  fortifications  is  to  be 
energetically  carried  out,  f he  Warsaw  center 
is  to  be  transformed,  Brest  Litowsk  is  to  be 
made  a  first-class  fortress,  and  the  Narew- 
Niemen  line  is  to  be  made  into  an  impregnable 
obstacle  by  means  of  strong  defensive  positions 
in  the  manner  of  the  barrier-chains  on  the 
French  eastern  frontier.  Great  exertions  are 
being  made  to  make  the  defenses  of  St.  Peters- 
burg even  stronger  than  those  of  Kronstadt 
against  an  attack  from  the  sea  by  strengthen- 
ing against  maritime  expeditions  the  south 
and  north  shores  of  the  mouth  of  the  Bay  of 
Finland  with  new  fortresses — Reval-Dago- 
Oesel  and  Sweaborg-Porkale. 

If  we  further  take  into  consideration  the 
amounts  set  aside  for  the  annual  training  of 
the  reserves  and  landwehr,  which  rose  from 
2,90,000  (sic)  roubles  in  the  year  1907  to  11,- 
165,000  roubles  in  the  year  1913,  the  immense 
quantities  of  grain,  arms,  transport,  wagons, 
and  other  war  equipment  which  have  been 

102 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

massed  and  gathered  together  in  the  frontier 
districts,  that  Russia  is  exerting  herself  to  de- 
velop the  greatest  possible  number  of  trained 
men  and  officers  in  the  art  of  flying  and  the 
handling  of  airships,  we  cannot  help  believing 
that  Russia  is  thinking  of  complying  with  the 
pressure  of  her  ally  and  banker  because  the 
time  for  a  joint  operation  against  Germany 
and  Austria- Hungary  is  favorable. 

But  they  have  not  neglected  to  employ  an- 
other means  of  weakening  Germany's  ally  in 
the  frontier  districts  in  question  by  despatch- 
ing agents  to  encourage  emigration,  so  that 
tens  of  thousands  of  those  liable  to  sei'vice 
leave  their  country  and  deprive  the  Austrian 
Army  of  irreparable  strength.  But  the  best 
indications  of  the  exertions  made  by  any  coun- 
try in  its  defense  were  afforded  by  the  official 
statistics  of  the  yearly  estimates,  and  Russia's 
increase  in  respect  of  those  for  the  army  alone 
amounted  in  the  years  1909-14  to  750,000,000 
marks  (£37,500,000).     That  is  about  72  per 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

cent.,  and  as  against  1913  they  rose  in  1914  by 
546,000,000  (£27,300,000),  i.^.,  43%  per  cent. 

When  we  look  at  the  navy  the  same  thing  is 
seen:  as  regards  new  ships  for  the  Baltic  Fleet 
four  battleships  of  23,370  tons  each  are  ready 
and  four  in  course  of  construction ;  six  armored 
cruisers  of  32,500  tons  each  are  completed  and 
four  under  construction ;  four  protected  cruis- 
ers are  ready  and  six  under  construction ;  fifty- 
eight  torpedo  boats  are  completed  and  thirty- 
six  under  construction;  and  there  are  thirteen 
submarines  built  and  being  built.  These  great 
efforts  to  provide  a  new  Baltic  Fleet  necessi- 
tated an  increase  in  the  estimates  of  302,000,- 
000  marks  between  1909  and  1913,  Le.,  154 
per  cent. 

During  the  same  period  the  estimates  for 
the  French  Navy  rose  50  per  cent.,  of  Eng- 
land 29.6  per  cent.,  but  of  Germany  only  13.8 
per  cent.  How  unjustified  therefore  are  the 
reproaches  which  Great  Britain  is  perpetually 
casting  at  Germany,  and  only  Germany,  that 

104 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

she  is  immoderately  increasing  her  navy.  Why 
does  she  not  do  the  same  to  her  Alhes — France 
and  Russia? 


105 


Ill 

A  FRENCH  WAR  OF  REVENGE 
FORECASTED 

AS  A  MILITARY  MEASURE  FRANCE  MUST  DE- 
CLARE WAR  AGAINST  GERMANY  IN  1915  OR 
1916 

It  is  remarkable  that  Homer  Lea,  in  his  work 
The  Day  of  the  Saxon,  makes  absolutely  no 
mention  of  France.  That  is  rather  humiliat- 
ing for  the  latter,  as  it  excludes  France  from 
any  competition  with  the  British  Empire. 
She  has  lost  all  importance  on  the  sea  as  re- 
gards England  since  the  latter  succeeded  in 
the  eighteenth  century  in  beating  her  navy  and 
wresting  from  her  her  considerable  colonial 
possessions  which  were  just  beginning  to  flour- 
ish. The  fact  that  France  has,  in  the  mean- 
time, acquired  considerable  new  possessions  in 

106 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

other  parts  of  the  globe  does  not  seem  to 
trouble  her  former  enemy,  Great  Britain,  as 
the  latter  has  been  able  to  retain  a  certain  su- 
periority. It  was  under  this  pressure  that 
France  had  to  give  up  her  rights  in  Egypt  and 
her  designs  on  a  colonial  empire  right  across 
Africa  from  Senegambia  to  the  Red  Sea 
(Abyssinia)  at  the  very  moment  when  she 
thought  she  had  effected  the  connection  with 
her  Eastern  possessions  by  means  of  Fashoda. 
This  was  the  only  case  in  which  her  efforts  to 
expand  came  into  conflict  with  the  British  Em- 
pire, and  the  latter  lost  no  time  in  putting  a 
spoke  in  her  wheel  with  brutal  emphasis. 

Although  this  treatment  by  the  Island  Em- 
pire in  1898  was  deeply  resented  by  France  as 
a  national  outrage,  the  impression  very  rap- 
idly disappeared  and  was  lost  to  view  behind 
the  desire  of  revenge  against  Germany,  which 
has  prevailed  since  1871,  on  England  stepping 
forward  to  help  her  in  the  IMorocco  question. 
What  is  the  reason  for  this  hatred  of  the  Ger- 

107 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

man  Empire  based  on  revenge,  which  causes 
all  other  matters  in  France  to  be  relegated  to 
the  backgromid  whenever  there  is  a  demand 
for  its  settlement  ? 

The  French  pretend  to  attribute  it  to  the  an- 
cient contest  between  the  Gauls  and  the  Ger- 
mans about  the  everlasting  bank  of  the  Rhine. 
In  order  to  justify  the  robbery  of  Alsace  and 
Lorraine  from  Germany  by  Louis  XIV  they 
have  put  their  own  interpretation  on  history 
and  have  so  stubbornly  stuck  to  it  in  the  schools 
that  not  only  the  French  but  also  the  inhab- 
itants of  the  Reichsland,  who  derive  their  in- 
struction from  them,  are  completely  permeated 
with  this  idea:  i.e,j,  since  the  partition  of  the 
Empire  of  Charlemagne — who  is  treated  by 
them  as  a  French  monarch — the  Reichsland 
has  been  a  shuttlecock  between  the  princes  and 
the  nations  so  that  it  could  never  rest  in  peace 
and  fully  develop  until  King  Louis  XIV  took 
pity  on  it  and  incorporated  it  in  his  Empire, 
when  it  was  enabled  to  enjoy  peace  and  the 

108 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

blessings  of  civilization.  Even  if  this  were  so, 
and  it  is  quite  contrary  to  all  historical  facts, 
it  could  not  be  denied  that  the  population  of 
the  Reichsland  was  and  still  is  to-day  entirely 
German  and  not  Gallic.  In  addition,  the  Al- 
satians and  Lorrainers  have  never  been  ac- 
knowledged as  entitled  to  full  equal  rights  in 
France.  On  the  contrary,  they  have  ever  been 
treated  as  subjects  of  foreign  origin,  and  have 
been  held  up  to  ridicule  and  contempt. 

But  the  defeats  of  1870-71,  which  termi- 
nated in  the  reunion  of  the  Reichsland,  deeply 
wounded  the  French  nation  in  its  tenderest 
spot,  its  vanity.  That  is  the  root  of  her  in- 
dehble  hatred.  She  could  get  over  the  de- 
struction of  her  navy  by  England,  and  the  loss 
of  her  colonies,  as  she  still  retained  her  superi- 
ority on  land,  which  was  created  by  Louis 
XIV  and  raised  by  Napoleon  I  to  the  utmost 
possible  limits  on  the  Continent;  from  that 
date  the  "Grande  Nation"  considered  herself 
as  the  imparter  of  culture,  the  ruling  power  in 

109 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

Europe.  When  her  boastful  arrogance  under 
Napoleon  III  was  met  by  the  unexpected  re- 
sistance of  Germany  and  the  latter  country 
(formerly  despised  for  her  division  into  little 
states  and  dismemberment,  and  jeered  at  for 
her  want  of  civihzation  and  culture)  rose  in  de- 
termined unity  and  unexpected  might  and  ca- 
pacity not  only  on  the  battle-field  but  also  in 
industry  and  commerce,  in  art  and  science,  and 
herself  took  the  lead,  then  the  French  nation, 
discovered  in  its  weakness  and  ousted  from  the 
throne  of  its  presumptuous  might,  was  deeply 
hurt  in  its  vanity.    Hinc  illce  lacrimce. 

The  fighting  powers  of  the  inhabitants  of 
the  Reichsland  are  of  some  importance  in  view 
of  the  fanatical  wish  to  win  it  back,  as  they 
are  the  descendants  of  old  German  races  dis- 
tinguished for  their  courage,  who  have  always 
preserved  warlike  inclinations  and  virtues. 
They  have  furnished  the  French  Army  with 
many  of  its  best  soldiers  and  most  celebrated 
generals.     The    approximately    two    million 

110 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

people  of  the  Reichsland  are  of  importance 
having  regard  to  the  decrease  in  the  popula- 
tion of  France,  and  would  be  of  substantial  as- 
sistance as  regards  the  deficiency  in  officers  in 
particular,  if  entry  to  the  French  Army  were 
again  open  to  the  inhabitants  of  the  Reichs- 
land. 

In  spite  of  a  noticeable  temporary  cessation 
of  the  hostile  spirit  (which  does  not  prevail  all 
over  France  and  to  an  equal  degree  amongst 
the  whole  population),  the  French  Govern- 
ment, whatever  views  it  may  have  held,  has 
always  persisted  in  completing  and  perfecting 
her  army  and  fortifications.  That  is  to  be  at- 
tributed to  two  reasons:  sufficient  protection 
of  the  open  frontier  left  after  the  loss  of  the 
Rhine  frontier,  and  the  endeavor  to  keep  her 
own  active  force  on  an  equal  footing  with  the 
German  Army.  A  chain  of  four  strong  ring 
fortresses  was  built  on  the  250  kilometers  (155 
miles)  of  the  German  frontier  on  the  Meuse 
and  the  Moselle,  of  which  the  two  barrier 

111 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

chains  of  Verdun-Toul  and  Epinal-Belfort 
serve  as  defensive  positions  on  the  wings  and 
flank  the  gaps  of  Verdun-Longwy  (50  kilome- 
ters wide,  31  miles)  and  Toul-Epinal  (70  kilo- 
meters, 43.4  miles).  Primarily  designed  to 
support  the  advance  of  the  French  Army 
against  the  much  more  rapidly  mobilizable 
German  Army,  these  fortresses,  now  that  the 
French  hope  to  mobilize  quicker  than  we  do, 
constitute  a  great  stronghold  in  a  war  com- 
mencing by  an  offensive  movement.  The  po- 
sition of  Verdun-Toul  in  particular  is  ex- 
tremely favorable  for  a  defending  army  in 
consequence  of  its  situation  on  the  edge  of  the 
Cote  de  Meuse,  from  which  steep  declivities 
descend  to  the  opposite  plain,  and  this  would 
certainly  have  to  be  penetrated  by  us.  When 
Italy  joined  the  German- Austrian  League  the 
Alpine  frontier  had  to  be  more  strongly  pro- 
tected against  the  former;  and  therefore  an 
abnormally  strong  fortress  consisting  of  Pass- 
barriers  and  strong  defensive  positions  was 

112 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

erected  in  this  neighborhood  which  not  only 
defends  all  the  roads  over  the  mountains  but 
also  numerous  by-roads.  Finally  they  had  to 
obviate  the  possibility  of  an  invasion  of  Ger- 
man troops  in  violation  of  Belgium's  neutral- 
ity or  penetrating  by  vi^ay  of  Switzerland,  so 
that  the  resisting  powers  of  their  old  fortresses 
on  these  frontiers  had  to  be  improved  and 
strengthened.  Thus  France  has  kept  up  a 
line  of  fortifications  on  the  whole  of  her  east- 
em  frontier  some  1,000  kilometers  (620  miles) 
long,  which  should  stay  a  surprise  invasion 
of  a  hostile  force.  It  will  be  quite  impossible 
in  any  future  war  to  pass  these  fortresses  with- 
out paying  them  any  attention  as  in  1870. 

The  erection  and  constantly  necessary  re- 
pair and  modernization  of  these  fortifications 
could  very  well  be  carried  out  by  means  of  the 
necessary  large  grants  which  have  always  been 
forthcoming.  But  the  maintenance  of  the 
army  on  the  same  basis  as  the  German  Army 
was  a  more  difficult  matter,  as  this  could  not 

^13 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

be  attained  by  mere  expenditure,  however  lav- 
ish, but  only  through  numbers,  and  of  that 
France  possessed  no  such  superfluity  as  she  did 
of  money.  As  long  ago  as  the  'seventies  she 
had  fallen  behind  Germany.  With  approxi- 
mately the  same  area  she  had  at  home  in  1875 
only  36,900,000  against  Germany's  42,700,000 
inhabitants.  Since  then  her  population  has 
only  increased  by  7.6  per  cent,  to  39,700,000, 
whereas  Germany  has  reached  67,500,000,  an 
increase  therefore  of  58  per  cent.  Conse- 
quently France  could  not  keep  pace  with  Ger- 
many in  the  annual  embodiment  of  recruits 
even  by  constantly  lowering  physical  re- 
quirements. She  was  compelled  to  reduce  the 
strength  of  the  units — in  the  first  instance  of 
the  companies — so  as  to  maintain  the  same 
number  of  battalions  and  afterwards  also  to 
employ  men  of  inferior  physique,  substituting 
them  for  many  who  were  engaged  on  indoor 
work,  as  orderlies,  etc. 

But  owing  to  the  small  number  of  recruits 

114 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

the  number  of  efficient  soldiers  who  could  be 
called  up  on  mobilization  showed  a  deficiency 
after  taking  into  account  the  reserves  of  the 
German  Army.  If  universal  service  had  been 
enforced  to  the  same  extent  in  Germany  as  in 
France  the  German  Army  would  have  had 
an  enormous  advantage  in  trained  troops. 
But  the  increase  in  size  of  German  battalions 
and  consequently  in  the  number  of  recruits 
has  not  kept  pace  with  the  increase  in  the  pop- 
ulation, so  that  the  balance  was  not  disturbed 
to  any  considerable  extent.  This  would  en- 
able France  to  obtain  an  advantage,  at  any 
rate  temporarily,  should  she  succeed  in  bring- 
ing her  standing  army  up  to  a  higher  figure 
than  is  at  the  disposal  of  her  eastern  neighbor. 
The  number  of  trained  men  capable  of  being 
added  to  the  recruits  in  case  of  war  could 
of  course  not  be  increased,  and  her  neighbor's 
preponderance  in  effectives  could  not  be  dis- 
puted, but  the  prolongation  of  service  with 
the  colors  from  two  to  three  years  secured  an 

115 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

addition  to  the  standing  army  of  at  least  200,- 
000  men  and  the  fm^ther  advantage  of  a  much 
more  thorough  training  than  is  possible  in 
Germany,  not  only  of  the  men  in  general  but 
also  of  those  who  aspire  to  become  officers  of 
the  reserve,  who  are  also  kept  for  three  years. 

After  the  introduction  of  the  three  years' 
term  of  active  service  the  French  standing 
army  reached  a  strength  in  non-commissioned 
officers  and  privates  of  768,300  (inclusive  of 
80,000  army  service  corps,  24,000  gendarmes 
and  81,300  colonials),  whereas  our  army  had 
only  619,000,  and  even  with  the  large  increase 
which  brought  us  near  to  universal  service 
again,  we  have  not  yet  quite  overhauled  the 
French,  as  we  have  only  about  751,000  troops 
with  the  colors. 

The  three-year  term  of  service  was  carried 
out  in  peculiar  manner  not  without  importance 
for  the  next  few  years.  As  those  born  in  1890 
who  were  in  the  second  year  of  service  refused 
to  remain  a  year  longer,  and  voiced  their  senti- 

116 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

merits  by  gross  acts  of  mutiny,  it  was  decided 
to  discharge  them  in  the  autumn  of  1913  and 
to  embody  two  annual  drafts  of  recruits  at  one 
and  the  same  time,  namely,  those  born  in  1892 
and  1893.  Consequently,  two  annual  drafts 
will  have  to  be  trained  at  the  same  time  by 
means  of  those  who  have  already  served  one 
year,  a  state  of  affairs  which  will  make  it  al- 
most impossible  for  the  French  Army  to  en- 
gage in  war  at  the  present  moment.  But  as 
the  commencement  of  service  was  put  back  a 
year,  Le.^  from  the  year. of  completion  of  the 
twenty-first  year  to  the  previous  one  in  order 
to  legally  carry  out  the  premature  embodiment 
of  the  1893  series,  those  born  in  1894  will  have 
to  be  called  up  in  1914.  And  as  those  of  1891 
who  are  now  in  their  second  year  are  bound 
for  three  years,  it  will  probably  be  possible  to 
keep  them  for  1915  also.  Consequently  it  will 
be  possible  to  have  not  only  three  but  even 
four  annual  drafts  in  the  standing  army  next 
year,  Le.j,  a  greater  battalion  strength  than  is 

117 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

required  on  a  war  footing.  Mobilization 
could  accordingly  be  effected  much  more  eas- 
ily and  rapidly,  as  not  only  would  the  various 
units  possess  their  war  strength,  but  they 
would  be  able  to  tell  off  a  considerable  number 
to  form  the  basis  of  a  reserve  army. 

France  will  once  again  in  1916  have  the  op- 
portunity of  playing  the  same  game,  as  the 
two  annual  drafts  called  out  in  1913  will  not 
be  discharged  till  the  autumn  of  that  year. 
If  by  that  time  she  has  not  attained  the  object 
of  her  mighty  preparations,  and  has  not  suc- 
ceeded in  dragging  Russia  and  England  with 
her  in  an  attack  on  Germany,  she  will  have 
temporarily  to  forego  her  war  of  revenge  if 
she  does  not  want  to  be  ruined  commercially. 

The  condition  of  France  due  to  universal 
three  years'  service  is  nothing  less  than  a  con- 
tinuous state  of  readiness  for  war.  Even  if  a 
wealthy  country  can  bear  the  financial  sacrifice 
required  for  this  state  of  affairs — the  personal 
sacrifice  becomes  too  great,  having  regard  to 

118 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

the  fact  that  not  only  is  the  peasant  torn 
for  so  long  a  period  from  his  plow  and 
the  artisan  from  his  trade,  but  the  whole 
youth  of  the  country,  whose  scientific  or  tech- 
nical education  is  of  indispensable  impor- 
tance to  the  State,  must  have  its  studies  in- 
terrupted for  three  whole  years,  and  has  got 
to  commence  again  at  the  beginning.  This 
youthful  energy  uselessly  sacrificed  to  the  idea 
of  revanche  would  avenge  itself  most  bitterly 
if  it  were  not  actually  used  up  for  the  war  of 
revenge.  Therefore  it  follows  from  the  mili- 
tary measures  of  France,  that  she  will  have  to 
insist  on  war  against  Germany  in  the  year 
1915  or  in  any  case  in  1916. 

But  France  is  not  content  with  having  more 
than  2  per  cent,  (including  officers)  of  the 
whole  population  in  her  standing  army.  She 
is  endeavoring  to  get  auxiliary  forces  from  her 
colonies  so  as  to  be  able  to  attain  the  necessary 
superiority  in  numbers  without  the  assistance 
of  other  countries.    As  long  ago  as  1870  the 

119 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

"most  civilized"  nation  drew  into  the  ranks 
against  us  all  sorts  of  savages  from  Africa,  but 
even  more  can  be  done  in  this  direction.  In 
Algiers,  Senegambia,  and  the  Western  Sou- 
dan especially,  there  is  a  population  estimated 
at  about  thirty  millions  which  can  be  of  consid- 
erable assistance,  and  the  aims  of  their  colonial 
administration  are  primarily  directed  to  this 
purpose.  A  German  traveler  who  is  very  well 
acquainted  with  the  conditions  in  the  Soudan 
confirms  this  in  the  following  words :  "Neither 
commercial  nor  colonization  schemes  are  suf- 
ficiently encouraged.  On  the  contrary,  their 
poHtical  efiPorts  are  directed  to  making  the  col- 
ony subsist  on  black  power,  black  intelhgence, 
and  black  money,  and  to  produce  French  citi- 
zens of  black  blood  by  thousands,  hundreds  of 
thousands  and  millions.  And,  naturally,  all 
these  millions  are  to  furnish  good,  enthusiastic, 
and  patriotic  French  soldiers." 

There  are  already  twenty-eight  battalions  of 
so-called   Senegal  Guards  in  existence,   and 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

every  year  sees  an  increase  in  the  planned  or- 
ganization. These  black  troops  can,  of  course, 
not  be  transplanted  to  a  European  climate 
just  as  they  are;  nevertheless  the  attempt  to 
make  use  of  them  on  the  North  Coast  of  Africa 
gave  apparently  good  results,  so  that  the  Eu- 
ropean or  Arab  troops  stationed  there  will  un- 
doubtedly be  transferred  to  the  European  the- 
ater of  war  and  be  replaced  by  Senegal 
Guards,  and  it  may  even  be  possible  to  bring 
over  the  blacks  who  have  been  acclimatized  on 
the  North  Coast  of  Africa.  In  any  case  they 
will  possess  very  considerable  forces  in  the 
Soudan  for  the  purpose  of  making  an  attack 
against  our  African  colonies  by  the  routes  laid 
out  thence  and  from  Equatorial  Africa,  and 
attempting  to  take  them  from  us,  which  would 
be  well  worth  their  while.  There  are  already 
20,000  men  ready  for  such  an  enterprise. 

The  activity  with  which  preparations  for  war 
are  being  conducted  in  Algiers  may  be  gath- 
ered from  the  constant  increase  of  the  AI- 

121 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

gerian  battalions  of  Guards  which  are  to  be  in- 
creased from  five  to  forty-eight  by  annual  ad- 
ditions, and  which  are  already  thirty-nine  in 
number.  But  in  addition  to  her  African  col- 
onies France  has  looked  for  assistance  else- 
where so  as,  notwithstanding  her  own  want  of 
men,  to  overhaul  the  strength  of  Germany's 
forces;  Aborigines  have  been  brought  from 
the  Antilles,  it  is  true  only  to  succumb  in  great 
numbers  in  the  South  of  France.  They  were 
consequently  shipped  off  to  Algiers,  but  even 
there  the  climate  did  not  seem  to  suit  them. 
But  after  such  attempts  we  should  not  be  sur- 
prised if,  during  the  next  war,  the  German 
troops  were  confronted  with  Annamites  and 
inhabitants  of  Madagascar  and  Cambodia. 

In  the  year  1912  the  number  of  trained 
French  troops  available  was  stated  as  between 
4%  and  4%  millions,  Le.,  11.3  to  12  per  cent, 
of  the  whole  population.  As  not  more  than  17 
to  18  per  cent,  of  males  can  be  considered  as  of 
serviceable  age,  it  follows  that,  after  mobiliza- 

122 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

tion  of  such  a  number,  only  children,  old  men, 
and  weaklings  would  be  left  for  civil  purposes. 
That  would  mean  that  all  civil  occupations 
would  be  at  a  standstill  for  the  purpose  of  car- 
rying on  a  war  in  such  numbers.  But  as  this 
is  absolutely  impossible  in  the  interests  of  the 
army  we  had  better  not  reckon  on  such  an  ex- 
orbitant number.  Russia,  with  her  190,000,- 
000  of  inhabitants,  can  submit  to  such  a  sacri- 
fice of  men,  but  not  France. 

In  any  case  the  French  army,  or  rather  the 
French  armies  if  the  number  of  army  corps  is 
doubled  by  the  embodiment  of  reserves,  will, 
even  without  the  territorial  army  and  its  re- 
serve, require  such  a  large  area  for  its  opera- 
tions that  the  Franco- German  frontier  would 
be  much  too  short  to  allow  it  to  pass  through 
at  one  and  the  same  time;  thus  one  army  will 
have  to  be  employed  behind  the  other  or  the 
outlets  will  have  to  be  increased  and  widened. 

Here  the  question  of  Belgium  becomes  of 
first  importance.     Her  sympathy  with  France 

123 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

is  so  well  known  that  she  can  hardly  be  ex- 
pected to  offer  any  opposition  to  a  march 
through  her  territory  which  as  a  neutral  state 
it  is  really  her  duty  to  do.  At  any  rate  this 
would  be  a  dangerous  game  for  Belgium  to 
play,  as  whatever  the  result  might  be  it  would 
probably  put  an  end  to  her  independence. 
But  England  also  appears,  as  we  have  seen, 
to  count  on  disembarking  her  expeditionary 
army  at  Antwerp.  And  they  would  have  to 
join  forces  with  the  French  in  neutral  territory 
— ^naturally  under  the  pretext  of  protecting 
Belgium  against  the  rapacious  German  Army 
even  if  the  latter's  troops  had  not  yet  set  foot 
on  neutral  territory. 

Homer  Lea  gives  us  some  points  with  re- 
spect to  neutrality  which  are  very  significant 
of  Anglo-Saxon  ideas.  He  thinks  that  the 
occupation  of  neutral  territory,  such  as  Hol- 
land and  Belgium,  might  call  forth  violent  op- 
position in  England  in  case  of  a  war  with  Ger- 
many.    "That  is  unjustified,"  he  says,  "as  the 

124. 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

British  Empire  can  make  no  impression  by  the 
sanctification  of  neutrahty.  This  only  forms 
a  means  of  withdrawing  from  responsibility 
and  imposing  it  on  those  nations  who  give  way 
to  the  self-deception  that  such  declarations  of 
neutrality  are  inviolable.  And  in  that  respect 
no  nation  has  more  frequently  violated  neu- 
tral territory  nor  has  any  nation  more  often 
excused  itself  from  the  duty  of  observing  neu- 
trahty than  the  British.  .  .  .  Should  the  An- 
glo-Saxons occupy  these  frontiers  that  will 
only  mean  territorial  but  not  a  moral  violation 
of  the  neutrality  of  those  countries.  .  .  . 
Neutrality  of  countries  under  such  conditions 
has  never  been  and  never  will  be  a  factor  to  be 
reckoned  with  in  a  war  between  the  nations. 
That  kind  of  neutrality  is  a  modern  illusion 
and  indicates  eccentric  aberration."  But  I  do 
not  beheve  that  England  will  exhibit  the  op- 
position assumed  by  Homer  Lea  to  a  viola- 
tion of  neutrality.  I  rather  think  that  his 
opinions  will  be  shared  there. 

125 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

France  has,  in  the  course  of  the  last  few  dec- 
ades, which  she  has  undoubtedly  devoted  to 
preparing  for  war  against  Germany,  had  to 
suffer  many  disappointments:  she  has  been 
overtaken  by  us  in  the  construction  of  guns, 
and  the  discovery  of  her  much  vaunted  smoke- 
less powder  has  been  a  fiasco.  When  the 
Lebaudy  was  proudly  reckoned  as  the  sole  un- 
rivaled airship  of  the  world,  there  appeared  si- 
multaneously in  Germany  no  less  than  three  air 
dirigibles  all  of  which  proved  to  be  faster  than 
the  French  one,  and  when  the  French  applied 
themselves  with  great  enthusiasm  to  the  con- 
struction and  development  of  flying  machines 
their  triumph  was  short-lived,  as  the  German 
machines  were  able  to  show  similar  results 
within  a  few  years.  The  reasons  lie  in  the 
natural  qualities  of  the  French;  they  are  in- 
telligent, inventive,  courageous  and  lay  hold 
of  a  new  idea  with  great  skill  and  enthusiasm ; 
but  they  are  not  careful  workmen,  and  lack 
the  untiring  patience  of  the  Germans,  who, 

126 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

unlike  the  French  satisfied  with  a  momentary 
success  and  then  taking  up  something  new,  are 
not  content  with  their  results  and  are  always 
striving  to  attain  something  better  and  more 
perfect. 

But  one  weapon  the  French  know  how  to 
wield  with  adroitness;  the  fostering  of  insur- 
rection in  our  border  country,  the  Reichsland. 
I  must  lay  emphasis  on  the  fact  that  in  the 
coming  war,  at  any  rate  in  the  first  days  of 
preparation,  this  is  destined  to  play  a  fatal 
part,  but  will  not  prove  a  blessing  to  the  poor 
inhabitants  if  they  do  not  resist  this  unholy 
influence. 


12T 


IV 
THE   HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

THE  HOUR  OF  THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE  AND  ITS 
ALLIES  MAY  COME  AS  EARLY  AS  THE  SPRING 
OF  1915 

The  European  nations  of  German  and  Latin 
origin  have  since  the  downfall  of  the  Roman 
Empire  rightly  regarded  themselves  as  the  pi- 
oneers of  civilization,  and  have  consequently 
considered  themselves  called  upon  to  impress 
their  stamp  on  the  other  portions  of  the  earth 
which  have  been  opened  up  by  them,  and  at 
the  same  time  to  exercise  spiritual,  but  to  a 
larger  extent  political  powers.  But  in  the 
development  of  nations  we  always  find  that 
the  population,  to  whatever  extent  it  may  have 
been  subjected,  acquires  all  the  qualities  and 
character  by  means  of  which  the  ruling  nation 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

was  able  to  make  itself  master,  and  then  en- 
deavors to  break  its  fetters,  whether  they  be 
spiritual  or  political.  From  this  arises  the  evi- 
dent danger  of  the  European  Great  Powers 
in  that  they  are  gradually  ousted  from  their 
ruling  position  on  the  earth  and  are  relegated 
to  the  Old  World.  And  the  more  so  if  they 
have  singly  to  meet  new-born  world  powers. 
We  saw  the  commencement  of  this  new  era 
during  the  Russo-Japanese  War;  as,  even  if 
Russia  is  not  to  be  considered  in  the  preemi- 
nence of  its  culture  as  a  prominent  member  of 
the  European  Powers,  yet,  as  distinguished 
from  Japan,  she  represented  European  civih- 
zation.  And  in  the  Pacific,  where  she  met  de- 
feat, the  future  battles  for  the  dominion  of  the 
world  will  be  decided  between  the  European, 
Asiatic  and  American  nations.  The  Em- 
peror William  II  years  ago  issued  the  follow- 
ing prophetic  warning:  "Nations  of  Europe, 
guard  your  most  holy  treasures."  What  he 
meant  by  that  was  clearly  indicated. 

1^9 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

No  one  will  dispute  this  view,  and  it  would 
be  sufficient  reason  for  the  European  nations 
to  unite  in  jointly  warding  off  this  danger. 
Nothing  further  would  be  necessary  than  a 
few  concessions  which  would  hurt  nobody,  a 
fair  adjustment  of  indispensable  expansion  of 
territory,  trade  or  power,  a  surrender  of  su- 
perfluous possessions  and  the  suppression  of  all 
selfish  efforts  to  take  revenge  on  or  repress  a 
neighbor.  Do  the  interests  of  each  so  con- 
flict that  no  portion  can  be  sacrificed  to  avoid 
the  loss  of  the  whole?  If  the  peace  confer- 
ences at  The  Hague  would  take  these  views 
into  consideration  in  the  hope  of  arriving  at  a 
union  of  the  Powers  in  common  defense,  then 
their  importance  to  Europe  could  not  be  suffi- 
ciently appreciated.  But  how  different  are 
the  conditions !  Divided  into  two  large  hostile 
camps,  the  six  Great  Powers,  groaning  under 
the  grievous  burden  of  their  armaments,  stand 
opposed,  talk  only  of  peace  and  friendship, 
and  then  one  side  is  consumed  with  the  desire 

130 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

to  strike,  whilst  the  other,  hand  on  sword,  has 
to  be  ever  ready  for  the  conflict  in  which  Eu- 
rope will  be  torn  to  pieces  and  for  many  years 
rendered  incapable  of  meeting  the  danger  to 
its  commercial,  political  and  military  rule 
which  threatens  it  from  without. 

Since  King  Edward  of  England,  under  the 
illusion  that  the  growing  land  and  sea  power 
of  the  German  Empire  was  a  danger  to  the  ex- 
istence of  the  British  Empire  as  a  world 
power,  concluded  an  alliance  with  all  former 
enemies  of  Great  Britain  and  spared  no 
trouble  to  isolate  us  and  surround  us  with  hos- 
tile forces,  Europe  has  been  living  in  constant 
anticipation  of  a  terrible  conflict.  That  it  has 
not  broken  out  long  since,  and  that  so  favora- 
ble an  opportunity  as  the  War  in  the  Balkans 
did  not  fire  the  powder,  and  that  it  was  just 
England  who  held  back  her  threatening  allies, 
is  in  my  view  principally  to  be  attributed  to 
the  cold-blooded  British  commercial  spirit. 
England  would  have  no  objection  to  the  Con- 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

tinental  Powers  coming  to  blows  and  lacer- 
ating each  other;  but  then  she  might  have  to 
bear  part  of  the  expense.  What  advantage 
would  any  side  derive  from  victory  in  such  a 
war?  A  devastated  country  and  empty  cof- 
fers. What  country  if  conquered  would  be 
able  to  pay  the  war  indemnity?  It  is  difficult 
to  see  what  could  be  "got"  out  of  such  a  war, 
and  as  Great  Britain  would  be  compelled  to 
take  part  because  she  herself  has  the  largest 
interest  in  the  destruction  of  the  German 
Navy,  and  could  not  hope  to  leave  the  battle- 
field without  very  serious  losses  and  without 
any  advantage,  she  for  the  moment  avoids  the 
execution  of  the  plans  drawn  up  by  herself. 

But  the  spirits  you  have  called  up  cannot 
now  be  got  rid  of.  France's  inspired  desire 
for  vengeance  against  the  German  Empire, 
and  the  inflamed  hatred  of  Russia  against 
Austria-Hungary,  who  bars  her  progress,  have 
compelled  both  countries  to  enhance  their  war 

132 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

preparations,  which  can  only  be  maintained 
for  a  short  time. 

As  a  matter  of  fact  these  preparations  can- 
not be  really  distinguished  from  actual  readi- 
ness for  war,  and  by  the  spring  of  1915  they 
will  have  been  so  nearly  completed  that  we 
must  be  prepared  day  by  day  to  expect  the 
invasion  of  a  mighty  horde  such  as  has  never 
been  seen  in  Europe  or  on  earth.  And  then 
the  hour  of  the  German  Empire  and  its  Allies 
mil  strike^  then  we  shall  have  to  fight  harder 
than  ever,  but  then  also  will  we  show  to  the 
world  an  enthusiasm,  a  resignation,  and  spirit 
of  sacrifice  even  greater  and  more  valiant  than 
in  the  wars  of  liberation,  for  never  will  a  na- 
tion have  been  attacked  with  greater  injustice 
than  in  this  coming  war.  Never  has  any  na- 
tion been  so  patient  and  long-suffering  under 
imposition  and  provocation  from  all  sides  as 
Germany  has  been  in  recent  years.  If  ever  a 
nation  and  a  ruler  have  shown  firm  determina- 

1S3 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

tion  to  remain  the  guardians  of  peace  it  is  Ger- 
many and  the  Emperor  William  II. 

And  just  as  last  year  the  Government  im- 
mediately answered  France's  threatening 
measure,  the  reintroduction  of  three  years' 
service,  with  a  powerful  addition  to  our  forces, 
just  as  the  German  people  submitted  to  the 
depletion  of  its  means  without  demur — nay 
rather  with  a  certain  sense  of  high-minded  and 
joyful  sacrifice  for  the  sake  of  the  Fatherland 
— so  we  may  be  sure  that  all  preparations 
will  be  duly  made  not  only  with  regard  to  the 
forces  but  also  provision  for  the  financial  and 
commercial  side. 

For  so  prolonged  a  war,  which  will  demand 
all  the  resources  of  the  countries  involved,  will 
be  carried  on  not  only  with  the  weapons  of 
army  and  navy,  but  also  by  pitting  against 
each  other  their  respective  commercial  and 
financial  resources.  But  it  must  not  be  im- 
agined that  five  or  six  million  soldiers  are  all 
of  a  sudden  going  to  pour  over  our  borders 

134» 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

and  simply  crush  our  armies.  At  first  there 
is  only  the  regular  army  to  be  considered  after 
deducting  all  troops  that  have  to  be  retained 
in  the  fortresses  and  for  various  other  pur- 
poses, as  the  embodiment  and  the  equipment 
of  the  reserve  armies  requires  considerable 
time.  Secondly,  large  masses  of  troops  re- 
quire large  operating  areas,  as  armies  only  ap- 
proximately similar  in  size  can  be  employed  in 
a  certain  space.  In  this  respect  the  operating 
and  fighting  conditions  of  our  modern  armies 
of  millions  differ  essentially  from  those  of  the 
smaller  armies  such  as  Frederick  the  Great 
and  even  Napoleon  had  at  their  disposal. 

In  those  days  strategists  were  always  able 
to  follow  the  course  of  a  battle  from  some  com- 
manding point  and  seize  their  opportunities  ac- 
cordingly. This  was  out  of  the  question  even 
at  Metz  and  Sedan,  as  the  still  comparatively 
small  masses  of  troops  had  to  be  extended  over 
many  miles  to  employ  them  in  battle.  And 
what  an  enormous  extent  of  ground  the  Man- 

135 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

churian  battles  covered!  So  there  will  be  no 
question  in  the  coming  battles  of  overpowering 
masses,  of  crushing  by  superior  forces;  one 
man  will  not  have  to  fight  five  or  six;  the  op- 
posing lines  will  be  equally  thick  or  thin. 

Thus  in  the  future  as  in  the  past,  the  moral 
qualities  coupled  with  the  physical  fitness, 
activity,  and  gunnery  of  the  individual  soldier 
will  decide  the  issue  in  a  skirmish,  and  correct 
judgment  of  the  enemy  and  his  movements  as 
well  as  employment  of  the  troops  at  the  right 
time  and  place,  on  the  part  of  the  commanders, 
will  decide  the  battle.  The  French  Army  will 
derive  no  advantage  from  its  excessive  increase 
in  numbers,  which  is  beyond  the  strength  of 
the  country,  as  this  effort  has  led  to  the  inclu- 
sion not  only  of  men  absolutely  fit  for  cam- 
paigning, but  also  of  many  who  are  weakly  and 
unfit,  and  this  may  prove  to  be  a  heavy  bur- 
den to  the  army. 

When  it  is  seen  how  few  French  soldiers  are 
able   to   withstand   disease — for  example,   at 

136 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

the  moment  no  less  than  36  per  cent,  of  those 
in  active  service  are  released  through  death, 
disease  or  debility — it  will  be  recognized  that 
many  will  succumb  to  the  exertions  of  heavy 
marches,  insufficient  nourishment  and  constant 
nervous  excitement.  It  cannot  be  denied  that 
the  longer  term  of  service  in  the  French  as 
well  as  in  the  Russian  Army  is  capable 
through  judicious  training  of  ensuring  more 
efficiency  than  is  possible  in  our  term  of  two 
years.  But  this  requires  in  particular  consci- 
entious and  willing  instructors  and  conse- 
quently a  corps  of  officers  and  N.C.O.'s  of 
supreme  excellence,  which  judging  by  the 
events  of  the  Japanese  war,  will  hardly  be 
found  in  the  Russian  army ;  and  in  France  the 
quality  of  officers  and  privates  alike  is  sub- 
stantially influenced  by  their  fatal  participa- 
tion in  pontics.  There  is  one  characteristic  of 
the  German  soldier  which  is  of  great  advantage 
to  our  army  and  which  is  absent  in  the  Latin 
races;  both  the  reserves  and  the  Landwehr  re- 

13T 


THE  GERMAN  EMPIRE'S 

tain  what  they  have  learned  in  active  service 
with  frequently  surprising  tenacity. 

To  fully  appreciate  the  value  of  this  quality 
it  is  necessary  to  see  a  company  of  the  Land- 
wehr  in  the  field.  I  have  myself  noticed  in  the 
case  of  pioneers,  whose  technical  knowledge 
is  the  most  easily  forgotten,  that  they  only  re- 
quire one  or  two  days'  practise  in  order  to 
completely  recover  their  infantry  training,  and 
hardly  require  a  short  course  of  instruction  in 
technical  work  before  they  show  the  same  skill 
as  if  they  had  been  discharged  yesterday  in- 
stead of  ten  years  ago. 

If  there  is  to  be  a  conflict  we  shall  enter  it 
with  the  same  consciousness  and  conviction 
of  victory  as  in  1870,  mindful  that  numbers 
alone  will  not  ensure  it  but  that  it  will  fall  to 
him  who  can  hold  out  longest  in  endurance  and 
money.  As  for  the  rest,  the  motto  adapted 
from  an  old  saying  which  the  architect  of  the 
Palace  of  Peace  set  over  the  window  of  the 
great  hall,  Si  vis  pacem^  para  justitiam,  is  all 

138 


HOUR  OF  DESTINY 

very  well,  but  absolute  justice  does  not  exist. 
Who  will  decide  the  dispute  between  Germany 
and  France  as  to  the  right  of  possession  of  the 
Reichsland?  Each  of  them  will  ever  maintain 
that  his  title  is  the  only  good  one.  Therefore 
it  is  better  to  restore  the  sentence  to  its  old 
form : — 

Si  vis  pacem,  para  bellurn! 


THE  END 


r«r. 


VAIL-BALLOU  CO.,    BINGHAMTON    AND   NEW   YORK 

139 


14  DAY  USE 

RETURN  TO  DESK  FROM  WHICH  BORROWED 

LOAN  DEPT. 

RENEWALS  ONLY— TEL.  NO.  642^405 

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on  the  date  to  which  renewed. 

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■)  ij'.;  I  •'! .' 't  ^ — * — i — '■ — ■ — 


'!  "; 


necP  ^^ 


^m^ 


M<>. 


MAY  1 3 1982 


m.  ^\K    JUN 1  8 


LD  21A-40m-2,'69 
(J6057sl0i476 — A-32 


General  Library 

University  of  California 

Berkeley 


THE  UNIVERSITY  OF  CALIFORNIA  LIBRARY 


BHENTANO'S 


ii 


ill!! 


